Hot-rolled band shortage likely by, or before, early 2008.

As we indicated in our Inside Track report dated September 6, 2007, WSD places the odds at 85% that a shortage of hot-rolled band on the world export market develops within six months. The reasons for this forecast include: a) the generally favorable global steel demand outlook; b) the prospect for lower Chinese steel product exports; c) an array of recent steel pricing and related developments (such as the currently high ex-works price of hot-rolled band in China); and d) the HRB export price is already within $50 per tonne of the level that we would call a steel shortage. The SteelBenchmarkerTM benchmark price on released on September 12, 2007, FOB the port of export, was $563 per tonne.

For more information about becoming a regular subscriber to WSD's research service, please visit www.worldsteeldynamics.com/subscription/index.html.