Speed Bump in the New Continuum

Speed bump, and a big one, in the New Continuum

 Based on WSD’s expectation for: a) the steel industry’s evolving “industrial structure;” b) the outlook for the global economy; c)  the supply/demand balance for crude steel; and d) the supply demand balance for steelmakers’ metallics, the outlook for steel mill profits appears to be as follows:

One year     = terrible

Two year    = improving, but probably only fair

Three year  = good

Five year    = highly favorable

WSD’s “most likely” price forecast for the rest of 2008 and 2009

We’ve worked out a five-phase price forecast for hot-rolled band prices on the world export market and in the United States, and also for steel scrap prices in the United States.  We needed this many phases to describe the possibilities given the complex and volatile environment in which the steel industry is enmeshed: 

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