July 2, 2025

EU HRC Prices Slide Further as Market Sentiment Stays Bearish

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Domestic HRC price offers fell by €20/t, now ranging between €560-580/t EXW in Northern Europe and €540-560/t EXW in Southern Europe. Import offers dropped by €10/t to €470-490/t CIF Italy. 

The mood across the European market remains cautious. Buyers are sitting on the sidelines, pointing to subdued demand in core steel-consuming sectors like automotive and construction, as well as an uncertain policy landscape shaped by CBAM, possible safeguard adjustments, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Some suppliers had to accept lower prices to keep order books filled ahead of the summer slowdown.

However, some service centers and traders believe the worst may be over. They point to short lead times at domestic mills and the potential for domestic producers to regain leverage once the window for 2025 delivery closes. “European steel producers will have the opportunity to raise prices when import supplies will face CBAM obligations”, German service center told WSD.

Buyers are now weighing the cost benefits of booking import shipments that would still arrive before CBAM compliance starts in 2026, though concerns persist around lead times and quality from some Asian origins. “Although some opportunistic buying is beginning to emerge, especially where import offers align with domestic price concessions, most participants are reluctant to take positions, preferring to wait further”, European trader confirmed WSD.

WSD Take. According to our proprietary model, price levels below €550-560/t appear unsustainable. A recovery above €600-620/t by September-October remains possible given a positive scenario entailing: 1) easing of trade tensions, 2) meaningful steel production cuts in China. Looking further ahead, the implementation of CBAM from January 2026 may provide additional support, potentially pushing flat-rolled prices toward €620-640/t as carbon costs factor into pricing.

The EU steel safeguard system has once again proven ineffective in curbing imports. HRC shipments from non-restricted countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Algeria reached 160Kt in April. If this trend persists, Q2 imports from these origins could hit 500Kt. As a result, total Q2 HRC imports may decline by just 5-8% y/y while surging 25-30% q/q. The European Commission may tighten trade barriers amid rising imports, potentially reshaping EU steel pricing dynamics, though no concrete measures beyond the revised safeguards (effective 2026) are currently under discussion.