EU: August 5, 2025: EU HRC Market Holds Stable Amid Summer Lull
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Domestic HRC prices are steady – €540-560/t EXW in Northern Europe and €520-540/t EXW in Southern Europe. Import price offers remain at €450-470/t CIF Italy.
Market participants held onto hopes for a price recovery in the post-summer period. Mills across the region continued to lift offer levels for September and October deliveries, but buyers are remaining hesitant, citing limited demand, ongoing summer slowdowns, and persistent regulatory uncertainty.
While suppliers appear increasingly confident about future price direction, most buyers are still in a holding pattern. Summer liquidity remains thin, and mills are beginning to limit tonnages available at current levels trying to impact buyers’ behavior. “Steel plants want to spur buyers’ willingness to accept higher price offers. All they can do is to restrict current supply”, German steel trader believes.
Some service centers and traders acknowledge that domestic mills are laying the groundwork for higher prices, anticipating a recovery driven by tighter supply, seasonal demand normalization, and EU safeguards. Still, actual acceptance of those higher levels remains limited.
On the import side, pricing remained competitive, but appetite stayed muted due to regulatory risk and logistical uncertainty. Buyers are wary of committing to imports with CBAM reporting set to tighten in 2026, and many remain unsure whether current deliveries would fall under 2025 or 2026 obligations. The lack of full CBAM methodology continues to cloud forward planning.
In general, spot demand across the region remains weak, particularly from end-users in construction and automotive. While some market participants report an early shift in buyer attitudes, the prevailing strategy remains defensive. Most procurement decisions are being postponed until September, when restocking needs and regulatory clarity are expected to coincide.
WSD Take. The current absence of restocking will force buyers into September catch-up mode, supporting European price recovery to restore viable margins, as current levels (€105/t) remain too weak to incentivize mill production growth. Prices could rebound to €560-580/t by September and further recovery to €610-620/t by year-end on pre-CBAM stock building looks justified. However, a sustained rally to higher levels is only expected by March-May 2026, as Q4 faces lingering import pressure.
Our forecast of a 5-10% y/y decline in Q3 steel imports is materializing. With key supplier quotas exhausted and import discounts to domestic prices now thin, flat-rolled inflows will remain constrained through September. Pre-CBAM restocking could fuel Q4 import momentum, even with thin arbitrage margins. In Q4 we expect neutral y/y import dynamics. The real pivot comes in 2026 as CBAM implementation could slash Q1-Q2 imports by 10-15% y/y, effectively acting as a technical trade barrier.
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