September 2, 2025: EU HRC Market Steady as Buyers Remain Cautious Amid Regulatory Fog
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Domestic HRC prices are stable compared to previous week – €560-580/t EXW in Northern Europe and €530-550/t EXW in Southern Europe. Import offers remain at €470-490/t CIF Italy.
Prices remained broadly stable in early September, as market participants returned from the summer break with guarded expectations. While mills continue to push higher offers for Q4 delivery, buyer sentiment remains cautious, held back by unclear demand signals and ongoing regulatory uncertainty, particularly around CBAM and safeguards.
Import activity remains subdued, despite competitive offers. Market participants remain reluctant to book overseas shipments due to timing risks and CBAM-related cost exposure. Buyers are concerned that import material ordered now may arrive in 2026, falling under the full CBAM regime and becoming more expensive.
Some mills believe that reduced availability of imports in the coming months could provide room for domestic price increases. Steel producers are attempting to secure long-term agreements priced €100–120/t higher than spot market rates. However, skepticism prevails among buyers. They report that the current fundamentals – particularly muted demand and high inventory levels – do not justify a meaningful price increase.
Market participants are also waiting for clearer guidance from the European Commission on how CBAM costs will be calculated and how the existing safeguard mechanism will be changed. “European Commission confirmed that CBAM will be launched in January 2026, however, many uncertainties remain. Market seems not to be prepared for this mechanism, so we could see unpredictable consequences”, an Italian trader told WSD.
WSD Take:
According to WSD’s proprietary model, EU HRC offers are set to rise from €580/t EXW Northwest Europe in September to €610/t for Q4 contracts. The combination of demand recovery, tightening import restrictions and CBAM implementation could drive prices to €680-700/t by end-Q1 2026.
Anticipated CBAM-driven restocking could boost Q4 demand as import prices may rise €40-50/t for flat-rolled products. Meanwhile, rumored EU ETS benchmark revisions might push CBAM costs to €70-80/t, potentially reshaping trade flows before 2026 implementation. Proposed TRQ system tightening effective January 2026 and extended Asian lead times support intentions of domestic mills to rise prices.
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