September 10, 2025: EU HRC Prices Hold Steady Amid Mixed Sentiment
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HRC prices are stable compared to previous week – €560-580/t EXW in Northern Europe and €530-550/t EXW in Southern Europe, while import offers remain at €470-490/t CIF Italy.
The sentiment gap between mills and buyers remains pronounced. Producers are signaling confidence, citing reduced import interest, lower domestic competition, and upcoming regulatory barriers as supportive factors to increase prices. Many believe that the combination of CBAM implementation in 2026 and quota constraints will shift purchasing toward local suppliers in Q4.
However, buyer sentiment is less enthusiastic. Spot liquidity remains soft, and some distributors report that necessary restocking had already taken place in July and early August. As a result, procurement activity remains subdued, with most players taking a “wait-and-see” approach until clearer signs emerge on consumption trends and policy details.
On the import side, price competitiveness remains, but uptake is limited as long lead times and risk of January 2026 arrival – bringing full CBAM cost exposure – are deterring many European buyers. “The Commission is now consulting with market participants about CBAM rules, which could be changed. So, we are all waiting for final CBAM regulation which should be prepared by the end of the year”, a German trader told WSD.
The current stability in HRC pricing is being maintained more by supply-side discipline than by a recovery in demand. Mills are keeping output controlled and focusing on longer-term contract negotiations for 2026, where they hope to anchor higher price levels.
WSD Take.
The market is likely to build inventories in Q4 ahead of CBAM implementation uncertainty, driving a significant import surge in October. This inflow will strengthen buyers’ negotiating power, enabling resistance to domestic price hikes until late October-November, when supply tightness may finally outweigh import pressure.
WSD expects HRC prices to reach €610-620/t by November-December, averaging €650/t in Q1 2026, though CBAM-driven supply tightness could psychologically push prices even higher. A reduction in free allocation benchmarks under EU ETS could raise CBAM costs from an estimated €40-50/t to €60-70/t, also increasing costs for European mills by €20/t. If implemented, these costs will likely be passed through to prices, facilitating their further increase.
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