September 17, 2025:  EU HRC Market Struggles to Gain Momentum Amid Persistent Buyer Caution

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HRC prices are stable compared to last week – €560-580/t EXW in Northern Europe and €530-550/t EXW in Southern Europe. Import offers rose €5/t to €485-495/t CIF Italy. While sellers continue to express optimism and push for higher prices, the market remains largely directionless as real consumption fails to recover meaningfully.

The broader mood in the market reflects a disconnect between supply-side pricing ambition and demand-side reality. Mills are holding prices firm, supported by reduced import competition and controlled production. However, market participants note that demand is muted, particularly in Italy, where spot activity remains subdued following summer restocking. Many service centers and distributors are operating with adequate stock levels and remain in wait-and see mode.

Import offers remain competitive but are generating little urgency. Uncertainty around CBAM implementation in 2026, the availability of Q4 safeguard quotas, and long lead times are all weighing on import appetite. Suppliers cannot guarantee delivery and customs clearance before the year-end cut-off. “Now we can’t calculate CBAM payments to add them to steel prices. In such conditions it’s not possible to book orders for next year”, a German trader told WSD.

Recent economic forecasts have added to the cautious tone. The European Steel Association, in its Q3 outlook, flagged continued weakness in downstream consumption and warned of a gloomy demand environment for the remainder of 2025. While some macro indicators have improved modestly, they have yet to translate into higher steel demand across key sectors.

WSD Take.

In WSD’s view, European HRC prices could rise to €580/t EXW Northwest Europe in the near term, reaching €610-620/t by November-December due to CBAM-driven cost pressures. A further price hike is likely in Q1 2026 amid supply tightness, with psychology-driven buying potentially pushing values toward €700/t. However, our base case forecast remains €650/t for Q1.

The market is pricing in a new TRQ system from January 2026, though we view this as a 50/50 probability at best. However, a Q1 price surge remains highly probable due to an import contraction – CBAM uncertainty will deter import orders, creating market imbalance. This could force emotional buying decisions, amplifying price volatility.

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