HRC Market Stays Flat as Uncertainty Clouds Outlook

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HRC prices held steady in Northern Europe at €560-580/t EXW, while Southern Europe saw a €10/t increase to €540-560/t EXW. Import offers remained unchanged at €485-500/t CIF Italy.

Sentiment across the supply chain continues to reflect unease. Market participants point to a lack of confidence from downstream sectors, especially in construction and automotive, which has limited restocking activity. Buyers are largely covering only immediate needs, with little conviction to commit to large volumes.

Traders and distributors point to the lack of clarity on Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) fees for 2026 and the restrictive impact of safeguard quotas. The absence of detailed cost benchmarks is preventing both mills and buyers from entering long-term contracts or planning import strategies.

Additionally, the European Commission recently launched an antidumping investigation into cold-rolled flat steel imports from five Asian countries. While the immediate impact is limited to CRC, market participants caution that additional trade restrictions could be introduced in other market segments. “European steelmakers are pushing aggressively for stronger market protection. Most likely, the European Commission will satisfy some of their wishes that will mean potential tightening of import supply”, an Italian trader told WSD.

WSD Take.

EU HRC prices could rise to €580/t EXW Northwest Europe in the near term, reaching €610-620/t by November-December due to CBAM-driven cost pressures. A further price hike is likely in Q1 2026 amid supply tightness, with psychology-driven buying potentially pushing values toward €700/t. However, our base case forecast remains €650/t for Q1.

Market optimism is fueled by speculation of a new safeguard system from January 2026, potentially featuring tariff rate quotas at 50% reduced volumes, though mills advocate for broader US-style tariffs. WSD views January implementation as unlikely, as policymakers aim to avoid overlapping with CBAM’s launch. Instead, the European Commission may prioritize fixing existing TRQ loopholes or applying anti-dumping measures to address import pressures.

Q1 price levels will largely hinge on the revision of free allocation benchmarks in the EU ETS. Under current rules (benchmark – 1.65t of CO₂), CBAM costs are estimated at €40-45/t of steel, carbon costs of domestic steel producers in the EU ETS – €18-20/t. Rumors suggest benchmarks could tighten to 1.40t, raising CBAM payments and domestic steelmakers costs by additional €20/t.

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