USA HRC Spot Price Range: $820-$860/ton

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Steel mill maintenance programs are now kicking in and helping to firm spot prices of hot-rolled coil (HRC) in the US market where overall demand remains soft, market participants tell WSD early this week. Nucor on Monday kept its Consumer Spot Price for HRC at $875 per ton for a seventh straight week.

“The scheduled mill outages are now starting in earnest, and this is propping up spot prices for flat-rolled,” a steel distributor said. “Demand is far from robust, but there is enough activity to support HRC at around $830 per ton for, say, a 500-ton order,” he explained.

Others on the buying side pegged this week’s range at no lower than $820/ton, and as high as $860/ton. They agreed that lead times have extended to about five-to-six weeks.

“It’s all supply-side support,” a steel trader said of the spot price firming. “Domestic production is lower due to the scheduled outages, and imports are down sharply. Demand, however, is just drifting along—not strong, not terribly weak—just ho-hum.”

Inventories are generally reported to be dwindling, “but there has been no mob-like hurry to replenish much [stocks] at all,” the trader added.

Also, during the first week of October, there has been no major rush to trade HRC futures on the CME. Volumes early this month are down from mid-late September, while open interest is mostly steady.

Trading volumes did pick up Monday and early Tuesday, reflecting a market in contango. Monthly settlements, at Monday’s close, were all above $800 per ton and higher. The October contract settled at $801, November at $829, December at $850, and January at $872.

While HRC spot prices have stabilized a bit, the ferrous scrap monthly buying period in the US is getting under way. Most market participants are expecting a softer October market for scrap, due mainly to the mills’ outages, expected lower steel production and somewhat weak finished-steel pricing.

“You may see prime scrap down $20 per gross ton in most regions,” a trader said.

WSD Take:

In conversations with our contacts, WSD is hearing a mixed bag of inputs ranging from some availability of large volume discounts, well below $800 per ton levels indicated by the key pricing indices, and some indications of higher pricing in the $830 per ton range for lower volume spot buys. These rumors, however, are largely representative of relatively limited spot buying on the aggregate.

WSD remains of the opinion that the potential for upward movement in steel prices will depend heavily on inventory restocking dynamics. Buyers anticipating some degree of economic improvement in the first half of next year may look to rebuild inventories during the final quarter of 2025. With imports largely off the table, extended lead times could give mills meaningful pricing leverage.

That said, WSD expects the fog of economic uncertainty to persist through year-end, which will limit the magnitude of any near-term rebound. A modest price increase in the range of $30–$50 per ton is plausible, lifting spot prices into the $830–$850 per ton range at best.

Looking further ahead, 2026 could bring a stronger recovery. If demand firms alongside continued import restrictions, U.S. steel prices could rebound above $900 per ton, restoring some of the pricing strength seen earlier in 2025.

That said, a new wild card is beginning to emerge. Following news of positive momentum in trade talks between the United States and Canada, the potential impact of an increase in Canadian export volumes to the United States must be highlighted. Canada has been the United States’ hardest hit trading partner. Based on available licensing data, August imports from Canada were 275K tons, down from a 2025 peak of 589K tons in January and down from 453K tons in July 2024. On an annualized basis, Canadian exports to the United States are down over 2.1 million tons versus one year ago.

As WSD has noted, steel demand has been notably weak, and the supply-demand balance of the U.S. market has been “saved” to a large degree by the rapid drop in import availability. Any agreement that would restore even 50% of Canadian import volumes, could result in an immediate oversupply condition in certain U.S. markets. The result would likely be a swift decline in U.S. prices absent a quick recovery in demand.

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