USA HRC and Scrap Prices Move in Opposite Directions

Click here to sign up today for a free three-month trial to receive all the articles in the Industry News service along with our monthly Forecast Reports.

Spot prices of hot-rolled coil (HRC) in the US market, fueled by mill outages, increased from last week, as reduced steel output has also given mills a break on the price of ferrous scrap. The October scrap market, according to sellers and buyers, settled down $10-$20 per gross ton across most grades and regions. Notably, prime scrap is down $20 from September.

At the same time, HRC spot prices are generally reported at $820-$830 per net ton in the Midwest, and as high as $840- $860/ton in the southern US, according to flat-rolled steel buyers and sellers alike. On Monday, Nucor maintained its Consumer Spot Price for HRC at $875/ton – unchanged since August 25.

HRC futures contracts on the CME are also pointing to higher prices with recent monthly settlements all well above the $800 level. October settled Monday at $814/ton, November at $835/ton, December at $854/ton and January at $868/ton.

“Supply is clearly leaner,” a Midwest service center buyer told WSD, pointing to the scheduled mill maintenance programs and lower overall weekly production. “Add sharply reduced imported steel options to that, and you see prices creeping higher,” he said.

In fact, steel import licenses for flat products for data collected through September 22 showed just 386,162 metric tons of flat steel products from all countries versus 832,066 metric tons imported in September 2024.

“Any rush to replenish inventories or surge in demand and HRC spot would easily top $900 per ton,” a steel distributor said, “maybe even approach $1,000—but buyers remain cautious, and steel demand is lukewarm.”

Lead times are said to be as long as six weeks now. “With the outages, order intake has been limited at some mills,” a steel trader noted.

WSD Take:

The price recovery that WSD began to report last week appears to have gained some stability. As expected, HRC prices tied to a reduction of available supply resulting from announced mill maintenance. Looking forward, buyers anticipating some degree of economic improvement in the first half of next year may look to rebuild inventories during the final quarter of 2025. With imports largely off the table, extended lead times could give mills meaningful pricing leverage.

That said, WSD expects the fog of economic uncertainty to persist through year-end, which will limit the magnitude of any near-term rebound. A modest price increase in the range of $30–$50 per ton is plausible, lifting spot prices into the $850-$870 per ton range at best.

Looking further ahead, 2026 could bring a stronger recovery. If demand firms alongside continued import restrictions, USA steel prices could rebound above $900 per ton, restoring some of the pricing strength seen earlier in 2025.

The greatest risk to upward pricing momentum in the US may be the possibility of a trade resolution with Canada—a possibility that is appearing to be increasingly likely. Canada has been the United States’ hardest hit trading partner. Based on available licensing data, August imports from Canada were 275K tons, down from a 2025 peak of 589K tons in January and down from 453K tons in July 2024. On an annualized basis, Canadian exports to the United States are down more than 2.1 million tons versus one year ago.

As WSD has noted, steel demand has been notably weak, and the supply-demand balance of the US market has been “saved” to a considerable extent by the rapid drop in import availability. Any agreement that would restore even 50% of Canadian import volumes, could result in an immediate oversupply condition in certain US markets. The result would likely be a swift decline in US spot prices absent a quick recovery in demand.

Click here to sign up today for a free three-month trial to receive all the articles in the Industry News service along with our monthly Forecast Reports.