EU HRC Market Sentiment Shifts as Buyers Navigate Supply Pressure

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HRC offers rose by €10/t to €590-610/t EXW in Northern Europe and by €20/t to €575-595/t EXW in Southern Europe, while import offers remained steady at €480-495/t CIF Italy. Despite sluggish demand and fading import activity, market sentiment is shifting as participants increasingly acknowledge the changing trade and regulatory landscape.

Mills continue to float higher offer levels for late-2025 and early-2026 deliveries, supported by tightening availability and declining import alternatives. While near-term consumption across key sectors remains sluggish, many market participants recognize that the pricing environment has changed – expectations of further price declines have largely faded. Restocking discussions for 1Q 2026 are slowly resuming, even as buyers remain selective and defensive in their purchasing strategies.

The erosion of import interest has become a defining theme. With CBAM implementation on the horizon and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the final safeguard regime, many buyers are avoiding overseas bookings altogether. The shift toward domestic sourcing – or contracts structured to minimize CBAM exposure – has been especially pronounced since the start of Q4.

As such, the overall tone in the market has become more supply-driven. Domestic mills have largely filled their near-term order books, and they are confident enough to target further price increases. With imports increasingly constrained by regulatory uncertainty – particularly around CBAM and safeguard quotas – buyers have fewer viable alternatives to domestic supply.

“Everyone is waiting for the release of preliminary CBAM benchmarks, which are essential for moving forward with import contracts. Until then, it’s too risky to make any assumptions about CBAM-related payments – there’s no guarantee that such estimates are reliable and accurate”, a German trader informed WSD.

WSD Take.

WSD re-affirms our previous forecast: HRC prices could reach €610-620/t EXW NW Europe in November-December, average €650/t in Q1, and €760-780/t in Q3 2026. Flat-rolled prices are projected to see steady monthly-to-bimonthly increases throughout 2026 driven by CBAM and safeguards.

The new trade defense system taking effect in July 2026 will potentially position the EU as the world’s most expensive and attractive steel market. WSD projects a 50% y/y import contraction in Q3 2026, creating a flat-rolled supply deficit as operable capacity utilization would need to reach 88%. European flat-rolled producers will struggle to fill the supply gap, particularly in HDGC and PPGI segments, leading to widening product price differentials.

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