EU HRC Market Steady as Buyers Weigh Risks and Resist Higher Offers

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HRC offers held at €590-610/t EXW in Northern Europe and €585-605/t EXW in Southern Europe, while import offers remained at €480-495/t CIF Italy.

Market sentiment remains divided, as mills maintain firm offer levels for first-quarter 2026 delivery, buoyed by tightening availability and regulatory tailwinds. However, most buyers continue to cover only short-term needs, citing limited visibility on downstream consumption and uncertainty surrounding the implementation of CBAM and evolving safeguard measures.

While producers signal confidence by holding or raising prices for January and February allocations, buyers show reluctance to accept those levels, especially as overall consumption remains sluggish. Some market participants acknowledged that restocking discussions were beginning but described the tone as cautious and far from decisive.

The import market remained quiet, with most transactions stalled by uncertainty over future CBAM costs and safeguard exposure. Offers inclusive of CBAM charges were available from Asian suppliers, but uptake was minimal as buyers increasingly shifted administrative and compliance risks onto traders. “Importers are seeking to secure steel deliveries on a DDP basis or at discounted prices that would offset potential CBAM costs. Risk management is becoming the central issue in making decisions”, a German trader told WSD.

WSD Take.

WSD forecasts HRC prices to reach €610-620/t EXW NW Europe by December, €630-660/t in Q1, with a gradual increase to €750-780/t by July 2026. Due to import constraints, the flat-rolled market is expected to shift decisively to a “seller’s market”.

Preliminary data suggests October restocking was minimal, at around 0.3Mt. While stoppages of several facilities are not critical for Q4 supply, they will prevent the buildup of necessary inventory levels. This significantly increases the likelihood of the market entering Q1 with low stocks, leaving buyers vulnerable and setting the stage for price increases.

We project Q1 import volumes to decline by 12-15% y-o-y, however, the import contraction in January is likely to be more severe, potentially creating supply shortages and driving price increases. By Q2 2026, imports are expected to rebound as restocking resumes, which should temporarily temper the bullish price momentum.

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