Steel Import Permit Applications Down 12% in September: AISI

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Delayed by the 43-day US government shutdown, the Commerce Department’s most recent Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis (SIMA) data was reported Monday by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). AISI noted that steel import permit applications for the month of September totaled 1,650,000 net tons (nt). This was a 12.0% decrease from the 1,876,000 permit tons recorded in August and an 11.5% decrease from the August preliminary imports total of 1,864,000, AISI said in a statement.

Import permit tonnage for finished steel in September was 1,248,000, down 11.0% from the preliminary imports total of 1,402,000 in August. For the first nine months of 2025 (including September SIMA permits and August preliminary imports), total and finished steel imports were 20,380,000 nt and 15,146,000 nt, down 8.5% and 12.2%, respectively, from the same period in 2024.

The estimated finished steel import market share in September, according to AISI, was 14% and is 19% year-to-date (YTD). Steel import penetration overall is at its lowest mark in years.

Still, AISI pointed to several steel imports with large increases in September permits vs. August preliminary imports. These included: sheet and strip hot-dipped electrolytic galvanized (up 208%), line pipe (up 48%), structural pipe and tubing (up 41%), tin plate (up 14%) and sheets and strip hot-dipped galvanized (up 13%). Products with substantial year-to-date (YTD) increases vs. the same period in 2024 included stainless pipe and tube (up 48%), tin plate (up 39%), line pipe (up 23%), wire rod (up 18%) and tin free steel (up 17%), according to AISI.

Below is the International Trade Administration’s steel import licensing data (through Nov. 12) for flat-product imports. It shows just 188,471 metric tons (about 207,000 nt) so far in November, and 527,145 metric tons (about 581,000 nt) in October.

AISI also noted that in in September, the largest steel import permit applications were for Canada (318,000 nt, up 5% from August preliminary), Brazil (241,000 nt, down 10%), South Korea (233,000 nt, up 32%), Mexico (127,000 nt, down 35%) and Germany (87,000 nt, up 15%). Through the first nine months of 2025, the largest suppliers were Canada (3,729,000 nt, down 26%), Brazil (3,393,000 nt, down 9%) and Mexico (2,348,000 nt, down 8%).

WSD Take:

We’ll be the first to admit that for the last 6 weeks, we’ve been flying blind assuming that import volumes were roughly consistent with previously released August data – luckily, that was a safe bet in the current tariff environment.

Based on the latest import license data, steel sheet imports were 6.96 and 6.60 million tons on annualized basis in September and October, respectively. This was roughly in line with a revised August figure of 6.69 million tons annualized in August but reflects a significant decline from a year-to-date peak sheet imports of 11.03 million tons annualized in January and total sheet imports of 10.5 million tons in 2024 (with a monthly peak of 12.1 million tons in May 2024).

For the time being, it is a safe bet to assume that sheet imports will remain below 7.5 million tons annualized through January; however, the supply-side driven price rally could eventually lead to new import opportunities in the coming months.

Currently, WSD contacts are pegging the World Export price at about $475 per metric tonne, or $430 per ton on a net ton basis; therefore, the price at the port of export including a 50% tariff would be about $650 per net ton. On that basis, in our current runaway pricing environment, Pacific Basin HRC would represent a +$125 per ton discount to domestic offers assuming domestic HRC prices above $900 per ton.

With a lack of underlying demand, the fragility of the current HRC price rally is amplified. As was the case in 2019, after the initial implementation of the Section 232 tariffs, buyers will seek imports if pricing rallies too aggressively versus global offers. In this scenario, prices could fall as sharply as they are currently rising.

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