EU HRC Market Remains Stalled as Buyers and Sellers Diverge on Price Outlook

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HRC offers remains at €600-620/t EXW in Northern Europe and €590-610/t EXW in Southern Europe. Import offers are steady – €480-500/t CIF Italy.

In both Northern and Southern Europe, mills maintain elevated offer prices, aiming to secure contract volumes for the first quarter of the year. However, buyers widely view those targets as unrealistic given still-sluggish real demand, high inventories, and weak end-use activity. The atmosphere remains cautious, with trading volumes subdued and participants hesitant to commit to new orders for early 2026 delivery.

This situation is compounded by continued uncertainty around the EU’s CBAM and ongoing safeguard revisions. The recent publication of draft benchmark and default emissions values introduced fresh confusion, particularly for importers. As a result, many traders and end-users avoided new import commitments, preferring to wait for further regulatory clarification before locking in volumes.

While DDP import offers inclusive of CBAM costs are still available – especially from Asian suppliers – buyers show little interest. The risk of unanticipated CBAM liabilities, combined with exposure to antidumping duties and safeguard quota limitations, makes overseas sourcing less appealing. Most participants describe the import market as effectively frozen, with few viable transactions taking place.

“CBAM is already functioning as a technical barrier to imports. Without the full set of implementing regulations, it’s impossible to accurately calculate the associated costs. Importers willing to take the risk and make a deal must be prepared for the fact that the final CBAM charges could come as a surprise”, an Italian trader told WSD.

WSD Take.

WSD estimates December HRC prices at €610/t EXW NW Europe and maintains its Q1 forecast at €650/t. In mid-November, EU steelmaking margins widened to €177/t, aligning with the historical average of around €180/t. Satisfactory margin levels, coupled with the relatively lenient leaked CBAM provisions, are likely to cap any significant price increases through year-end.

The core bullish thesis for next year rests on import contraction due to high uncertainty: based on our forecast, Q1 imports could potentially contract by 20-30% y-o-y. From July 2026 onwards, imports will likely face additional effective restrictions due to a 40-43% reduction in tariff-rate quota volumes. As such, the environment for price increases will be quite favorable.

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