Nucor and SDI Provide Q4 Guidance, 2026 Outlooks
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Leading EAF steel producers Nucor and SDI both provided Q4 guidance Wednesday, independently pointing to lower earnings for the quarter, but sharing positive outlooks for 2026.
“Earnings in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to decrease across all three of our operating segments as compared to the third quarter of 2025, driven by seasonal effects and fewer shipping days in Nucor’s fiscal quarter,” Nucor said in its statement. “The steel mills segment earnings are projected to decrease due to lower volumes and margin compression, primarily in sheet,” the company added.
In Nucor’s steel products segments, earnings are expected to decline on lower volumes and higher average costs per ton, partially offset by higher average realized pricing. Its raw materials segment is expected to have lower earnings, mainly because of two scheduled outages at Nucor’s DRI facilities.
SDI noted in its statement: “Fourth quarter 2025 profitability from the company’s steel operations is expected to be meaningfully lower than sequential third quarter results due to lower average realized selling values and lower volumes related to both seasonal demand and planned maintenance outages at the company’s flat rolled steel mills.” The company added that in addition to lower seasonal activity, some of its planned maintenance outages were longer in duration than originally anticipated “and decreased volume in the fourth quarter 2025 by an estimated 140,000 to 150,000 tons of flat rolled steel production.”
SDI said: “Average published indexed hot rolled steel prices decreased over $70 per ton from July to October 2025, lowering the company’s fourth quarter sequential flat rolled steel selling values, due to commercial contracts that price on a lagging indexed basis.” The company added: “However, more recently flat rolled steel prices have improved, as import volume has declined and underlying demand has been seasonally steady.”
Fourth quarter 2025 earnings from SDI’s steel fabrication operations are expected to be lower than sequential third quarter results, based on seasonally lower shipments more than offsetting modest metal spread expansion, as average selling values were steady and steel raw material costs declined. “The order backlog extends well into the second quarter 2026, with healthy pricing,” SDI noted. “Current order activity is steady with expectations for improved volumes in 2026, as interest rates decline and the support from the US infrastructure program and onshoring are expected to positively impact demand for not only steel joist and deck products, but also for flat rolled and long product steel.”
Looking ahead into 2026, Nucor said it is encouraged “by backlogs that are materially higher than they were a year ago at this time, reflecting continuing momentum in select construction market segments such as energy, infrastructure, data centers and manufacturing.” The company is also optimistic that monetary, tax and trade policy will lead to continued gradual improvement in business conditions.
Nucor expects fourth quarter earnings to be in the range of $1.65 to $1.75 per diluted share. Nucor reported net earnings of $2.63 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2025 and $1.22 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2024.
SDI pegged Q4 2025 earnings guidance in the range of $1.65 to $1.69 per diluted share. Comparatively, the company’s sequential third quarter 2025 earnings were $2.74 per diluted share, and prior year fourth quarter earnings were $1.36 per diluted share.
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