European HRC Market Enters New Phase as Mills Test Higher Offer Levels

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HRC offers rose €10/t to €670-690/t EXW in Northern Europe and to €650-670/t EXW in Southern Europe. ArcelorMittal lifted its offer for Northern Europe by €20/t to €720/t delivered for May shipment. Import offers remained at €510-530/t CIF Italy.

In Northwestern Europe, producers have gradually extended lead times into May, with April order books largely filled. This tightening of near-term availability has strengthened mills’ confidence. As a result, several producers temporarily stepped back from quoting last week after securing sufficient volumes, returning to the market with higher offers. This “stop-and-go” approach is widely viewed as a way to reset price expectations and avoid underpricing remaining allocations.

However, buyers are not reacting with urgency. With consumption still sluggish and inventories relatively comfortable, most customers are focusing on hand-to-mouth bookings rather than forward restocking.

Import activity remains muted and largely unattractive once CBAM costs and duties are included. Turkish offers around €520/t CFR for April shipment appear competitive on paper, but once additional costs are factored in, delivered prices move closer to domestic levels. Asian and North African material quoted on a delivered-duty-paid basis has similarly narrowed the gap with EU supply. This convergence has reduced the incentive to book foreign coil, reinforcing mills’ pricing leverage.

Overall sentiment across the European HRC market is cautiously bullish. Mills are clearly steering the direction, supported by regulatory factors and diminishing import competition. Buyers, meanwhile, remain pragmatic: they acknowledge the upward momentum but continue to resist large commitments in the absence of clear demand recovery. “The direction of price movement is well understood across the market, but participants are still trying to play their own tactical games. Producers are confident that buyers will eventually have to return to the market and accept existing offers”, as per a German distributor source.

WSD Take.
In the short term, demand remains weak due to heavy restocking activity in December-January and expectations of a surge in import arrivals in April and any further price increases would only intensify this inflow. On the other hand, EU steelmaking margin widened to €177/t as of mid-February, that is in line with the historical average and also makes further price increases in the coming weeks challenging.

In the medium term, a price hike is inevitable due to the tightening TRQ regime since July. It is highly probable that in Q3, imports of certain product categories from specific origins (e.g., ASEAN) could exceed quota limits, as domestic steel output is likely to lag behind the pace needed to replace imports. In this case, importers will have to pay 50% duties.

WSD forecasts March-April HRC prices at €670-680/t, with a potential jump in May-June to €730-750/t, once import opportunities are exhausted towards the end of Q2. Under new TRQ, €780-800/t of HRC is seen as the benchmark above which over-quota imports become viable. If the market builds sufficient inventories ahead of July as expected, reaching this price level will be gradual, unfolding over Q3.

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