Import Constraints and Rising Energy Costs Continue Reshaping EU HRC Market
HRC offers remain at €700-720/t EXW in Northern Europe and €690-710/t EXW in Southern Europe. Import offers are stable at €520-540/t CIF Italy. However, these offers are often viewed as indicative rather than fully tradable, highlighting uncertainty over achievable levels and future costs.
European buyers are reassessing import strategies due to rising freight rates, longer delivery times and persistent uncertainty surrounding Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Even when import prices appear competitive on paper, the overall risk profile remains high, discouraging new bookings.
Safeguard quota constraints, combined with CBAM-related cost uncertainty, are pushing buyers toward domestic sourcing despite reservations about current price levels. Only larger buyers with greater risk tolerance remain active in the import segment, often preferring delivered-duty-paid arrangements to mitigate exposure. “Buyers are unwilling to take on CBAM-related risks themselves, increasingly requiring import suppliers to provide financial guarantees to cover potential CBAM payments. At this point, such arrangements appear to be the only way to maintain access to the European market”, an Italian trader told WSD.
Local mills are holding firm on elevated price levels. However, this firmness is not supported by demand recovery, as consumption remains weak and buyers limit purchases to immediate needs. Rising steel prices, coupled with higher energy and transport costs, are beginning to weigh on downstream sectors. Distributors and end-users report growing difficulty in passing on higher costs, which is reinforcing a cautious purchasing approach.
WSD Take.
WSD expects April HRC prices at €700–730/t. April is expected to see strong imports, as import prices appeared attractive after accounting for CBAM. WSD expects flat-rolled imports in Q2 to match year-ago levels. This will make price increases challenging in the coming weeks. A new round of price increases could materialize in the second half of April, once the main import opportunities for the quarter are exhausted.
The rise in energy costs has increased steelmaking costs globally. Energy prices are likely to remain elevated in the medium term, leading to higher price targets for Q3. According to WSD estimates, the new breakeven point for above-quota imports, including payment of a 50% import duty, is €820/t. As local supply is slow to ramp up and mills are maintaining production discipline, further price increases look like inevitable.