EU HRC Market Quiet as Buyers Hold Back on Purchases
HRC offers remain at €700-720/t EXW in Northern Europe and €690-710/t EXW in Southern Europe. Import offers rose €10/t to €530-550/t CIF Italy.
Market sentiment has shifted toward caution, particularly on the buyer side. Many distributors and end-users appear reluctant to commit to new purchases, uncertain whether the recent upward trend has further room to run. This hesitation is reinforced by weak real demand and sufficient inventory levels across the supply chain, allowing buyers to delay restocking decisions.
Producers, however, remain comparatively confident. Limited import availability continues to support domestic pricing, largely due to the impact of CBAM and ongoing trade restrictions. Mills are therefore maintaining firm pricing positions, even in the absence of strong transactional activity. “Producers recognize their market power and are trying to prepare buyers for new reality with elevated prices. At the same time, there is a broad understanding that a return to purchasing activity is inevitable”, an Italian distributor told WSD.
Imports are still viewed as less attractive overall. Ongoing uncertainty around total landed costs, including CBAM related expenses, continues to discourage buyers from returning to overseas sourcing for meaningful volumes.
Across the market, sentiment remains divided. Suppliers expect that constrained imports could support further price increases once activity resumes after the holidays. At the same time, buyers remain focused on risk management, preferring to preserve flexibility in an environment characterized by weak consumption and limited predictability.
WSD Take.
WSD expects April HRC prices in the €700–730/t range, with a probable jump later in the month. April will likely see strong imports, as import prices appeared attractive after accounting for CBAM. WSD expects flat rolled imports in Q2 to match year-ago levels. This will make price increases challenging in the coming weeks.
EU mills are maintaining production discipline, having cut output amid virtually halted imports in February. We expect that local supply growth in response to the anticipated reduction in imports in Q3 will also lag. Expensive energy and higher import prices allow price targets for Q3 to be raised to €780–800/t for HRC.