USA HRC Spot Prices Still Shy of $1,100/ton
The hot-rolled coil (HRC) spot market price rally in the US has slowed in recent days, likely because of leaner activity during a US-holiday week, based on buy- and sell-side reports to WSD. “Prices are still inching higher—now at about $1,085-$1,090 per ton,” a steel distributor in the southern US said. But that’s a slightly slower pace than last week when the spot market was reportedly in a range of $1,080-$1,085 per ton.
Also, after two weeks of $10/ton increases to its weekly Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for HRC, Nucor eased off the pedal a bit by publishing a $5 increase to $1,095/ton on Tuesday, May 26th, the day after the Memorial Day Holiday in the United States. On the west coast, CSI’s base price for HRC was also hiked by $5 — to $1,145 per ton.
“It’s a short week for buying in an already tight spot market, but the market is still rising,” a service center buyer in the Midwest said. “There have been reports of somewhat more imported material at Gulf ports also at higher prices—about $970 per ton DDP—but domestic freight rates and gas surcharges are now higher,” he added.
In fact, on a three-month rolling average basis, hot-rolled sheet imports are up 11% for the current three months versus the prior three, according to the latest AISI data.
The steel distributor said that HRC spot offers from “some southern flat-rolling mills are slightly lower than those elsewhere—around $1,080-$1,085,” depending on the mill and order size. A couple of mill sales reps said lead times are about eight weeks, or well into July—and pointed to a few sales “above $1,090 per ton.” Citing steel mill maintenance schedules, one buyer reported that not all mills have opened their June order books yet.
Last week, several buyers thought the HRC spot price would have surpassed the $1,100 mark already. So, given Nucor’s modest CSP this week of $1,095 per ton, and transactions reported slightly below that level, WSD asked this week: is there resistance at $1,100?
“Maybe a little,” answered another buyer at a Midwest service center, “But demand is still solid throughout the chain, and I think it’s just reflecting a very minor slow down during a holiday week – not a major pause. And I certainly don’t think a reversal, or a decline, is imminent.”
Indeed, CME HRC futures continue to reflect positive market sentiment. The forward curve is 2-5% stronger than just two weeks ago — when comparing the latest settlements (Tuesday, May 26th ) to those of May 11th.
Trading volumes on Tuesday were also fairly robust immediately after the US holiday with 244 lots trading for the June contract, 528 lots for July, and August with 380 lots.
WSD Take:
US HRC prices continue their march toward $1,100/ton with no clear signs of slowing in the near term. WSD currently expects prices to rise an additional $20–30/ton during June as tight supply-demand conditions persist, inventories remain lean, and imports—while increasing modestly—have not gained sufficiently to rebalance the domestic market.
Furthermore, rising domestic freight costs from ports, combined with elevated ocean freight rates, have significantly narrowed the economic incentive to import hot-rolled coil. At present, import pricing does not offer a meaningful enough discount versus domestic material to support a sustained acceleration in import volumes over the near term.
The key development to watch during June remains the ongoing USMCA negotiations. Any meaningful structural change to steel import provisions or tariff policy involving Canada and Mexico could result in a resumption of stronger import flows by late summer. However, there is currently limited evidence suggesting that substantial steel-related trade revisions will be included in the renegotiation process.
As a result, WSD expects pricing to remain elevated through the balance of the summer as buyers continue struggling to rebuild inventories while maintaining largely hand-to-mouth purchasing practices amid stable end-market demand and continued supply constraints across the marketplace.