European HRC Market Remains Stagnant as Weak Demand Keeps Buyers Defensive
HRC offers decreased by €20/t to €680-700/t EXW in Northern Europe and to €670-690/t EXW in Southern Europe. Import offers into Italy remained at €590-610/t CIF.
Service centers and distributors point to a combination of weak end-user demand, economic uncertainty and a fragmented holiday calendar across Europe as the main reasons behind the near-standstill in the market. Many participants also acknowledged that inventories remain comfortable after earlier stock-building, leaving little urgency for restocking ahead of summer.
At the same time, confidence in a near-term recovery has faded significantly. Consumers increasingly believe that prices are unlikely to regain the €700-per-tonne level on a sustainable basis before the end of the summer period. As a result, purchasing strategies have become extremely conservative, with buyers focusing only on immediate needs and avoiding speculative bookings.
Steelmakers, meanwhile, are facing growing pressure to balance pricing ambitions with the need to fill order books for the summer months. Some mills have become more flexible on pricing, prioritizing volumes over margins, particularly for larger transactions. Others continue attempting to maintain firmer offer levels, supported by technical outages and tighter availability at certain facilities.
Import activity remained muted as well. Uncertainty surrounding the new EU safeguard regime scheduled for July, combined with unresolved questions regarding CBAM-related costs, continued to discourage fresh bookings. Although Turkish, Indian and Asian offers remained available at lower levels than domestic material, buyers remained reluctant to take additional risks related to quotas, duties and delivery timing. “The delay in publishing country-specific quotas is preventing buyers from booking import orders and replenishing inventories in a timely manner. In my view, many customers still do not fully understand the potential consequences of this situation,” a German trader reported to WSD.
WSD Take.
Given the current market softening, HRC price levels at the end of May may reach €710/t EXW NW Europe, with subsequent growth to €780-820/t in Q3. The main consequences of tighter supply due to stricter TRQs may only appear in September-November as TRQ-exempt imports will likely allow buyers to build up to 3Mt of inventory from Q4 2025 through Q2 2026. This gives buyers the opportunity to pause and exert downward pressure on prices. According to market sources, EU mills have unsold volumes through late June.
The margin of EU integrated steelmakers collapsed by €30/t over the month to €165/t as of mid-May. The reasons include both lower prices and higher energy costs. This margin level is below the historical average of €180/t and does not support output increases. The market is approaching a bifurcation point – uncertainty over imports will push buyers toward EU mill offers. As a result, limited domestic supply will support higher HRC prices later.