EU Hot-Rolled Coil Buyers Remain on Hold as Market Awaits Quota Clarity
HRC (hot-rolled coil) offers remained at €680-700 per tonne EXW (ex-works) in Northern Europe and €670-690 per tonne EXW in Southern Europe. Import offers are stable at €600-620 per tonne CIF (cost, insurance and freight) Italy.
Across Northern and Southern Europe, market sentiment is dominated by uncertainty surrounding country-specific quota allocations under the upcoming import control system. The lack of clarity has effectively frozen both domestic and import purchasing activity, with many participants preferring to postpone decisions until the new rules become clearer.
Buyers are increasingly cautious, fearing that any purchasing decision made before the quota framework is finalized could expose them to additional costs or leave them holding overpriced inventory. Sellers, meanwhile, are trying to maintain price discipline but acknowledge that uncertainty is limiting their ability to secure new orders.
Many service centers remain focused on inventory management rather than replenishment, describing end-user demand as inconsistent. At the same time, mills appear increasingly frustrated by the slow pace of sales, although they remain reluctant to offer significant discounts in anticipation of tighter market conditions later in the year. “Steel producers are waiting for the moment when they can fully leverage their market power. It is only a matter of time before market conditions allow that to happen,” a German distributor believes.
The import market is equally quiet. Many traders have effectively stepped back from offering material until quota allocations become known, while buyers remain unwilling to take risks related to safeguard restrictions and CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) costs. Recent offers from Turkey, Algeria and Asia attracted limited interest. Traders describe the current environment as exceptionally difficult, as they cannot accurately assess future competitiveness without knowing how the new quota system will function in practice.
WSD Take.
WSD expects prices to rise to €730-750 per tonne Northwest Europe EXW by the end of June. The jump will be sharp, with subsequent growth above €800 per tonne in September-November. Imports will remain high until the end of June, given that the main sources are countries exempt from the tariff-rate quota (TRQ). This means continued pressure on prices.
We expect the release of country-specific quotas could be at the end of June, given the complexity of the negotiation process with free trade agreement (FTA) partners. So, the delay in publishing country allocations under the new TRQ creates uncertainty and does not allow offers to be formed for July.
After the release of country allocations, prices will spike upwards, following a V-shaped dynamic because of several factors. Firstly, current import prices are not attractive and imports are extremely risky. This leaves few alternatives other than local mill supply. Secondly, domestic mill margins are hovering near €160 per tonne, which is well below the historical €180 per tonne average. Such a situation does not incentivize idled facilities to restart and increase supply. Thirdly, buyers are not seeking to build stocks ahead of TRQ tightening, having paused purchases, which reduces accumulated inventories. By drawing down inventories today, buyers will be in a vulnerable position until the end of 2026 that will force them to accept higher price offers.