Nucor Pauses its HRC Spot Price Hikes as Increased Import Risk Looms
After 23 straight weeks of increases to its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for hot-rolled coil (HRC) — dating back to January 12th— Nucor’s CSP on Monday was unchanged at $1,130 per ton from all producing mills. Nonetheless, WSD’s weekly canvassing of the HRC spot market still points to higher-priced transactions.
“While our CSP price is unchanged this week as we monitor import levels as well as domestic and global price dynamics, underlying demand is strong and improving, with current indicators pointing to continued strength through the back half of 2026 and into 2027,” Nucor told its customers in the weekly letter posted on Nucornow.com. Its base price for HRC from CSI was also unchanged at $1,180 per ton.
In fact, according to preliminary Census Bureau data, hot-rolled sheet was among the steel products with a major import jump last month — up 128% to 90,387 net tons in May versus nearly 40,000 nt in April.
“Imports could become a factor in the tight domestic spot market despite the tariff cost,” a service center buyer in the southern US told WSD. “The current import price from Houston is about $1,040 per (net) ton DDP—approximately $100 below the domestic mills. But it’s not really about arbitrage opportunities, it’s about getting what we need because US mills continue to offer limited spot tons,” he added.
One US buy-side market participant told WSD some US mills have yet to open their spot order books for August. That doesn’t entirely square because lead times are said to be between eight to ten weeks — as many mills continue to satisfy contract business commitments over engaging in spot market activity — which would mean September is already being booked.
One mill sales rep told WSD that its September spot order book for HRC was opened just a few days ago. “Cold-rolled and coated have been booking September now for a couple of weeks,” he added.
“As Nucor noted this week, demand is strong and looks sustainable the remainder of the year,” a machinery OEM buyer in the Midwest told WSD. “We’re getting contract tons and have also had a need for the odd spot buy here and there, with limited success.”
What’s more, he pegged the current spot transaction price somewhat above Nucor’s CSP at $1,140 per ton for an average size order. “For small spot tonnages, which is likely all you can find, you might even pay slightly above $1,150 per ton this week,” he told WSD.
“We’ve had success booking September HRC spot orders at $1,140-$1,150 per ton, depending on the mill,” the Nucor rival sales rep confirmed.
“Nucor probably could have safely raised its CSP again this week, maybe $5 or $10, but it’s a short week with the US July 4 th holiday weekend starting Friday,” a steel distributor in the American heartland observed. “July scrap buying is also likely to start later than usual, after the holiday, so maybe Nucor is just taking a holiday break and waiting for more clarity there.”
While the CME’s forward curve for HRC continues to point to strong market confidence, settlements on Monday, June 29th all declined—a possible indication that the long-running contango market (when futures contract prices exceed the current physical spot market price) is starting to level off.
WSD Take:
Imports Are the Wild Card In our June 9th USA Steel Dynamics Update, WSD posed the question “How Long Can Imports Stay Out of the Market?” and identified imports as the most likely wild card to disrupt the current US HRC pricing dynamic.
Three points framed that assessment: (1) the tariff- and freight-adjusted arbitrage spread between USA HRC and the world export price had widened to a historically inviting level — about $255 per net ton in February and roughly $261 per net ton by June — even after accounting for 50% Section 232 tariffs and a freight surge tied to the Iran conflict; (2) sheet imports (finished, annualized) had already crept up from a low near 5.5 million tons to about 6.2 million tons through May; and (3) with domestic lead times stretched into near-import territory, buyers placing foreign orders in the weeks ahead could reverse the ongoing upward US price creep by early fall.
There is a distinct possibility that import volumes climb further in the months ahead — potentially surpassing 7 million tons annualized by the end of the summer and creeping toward 8 million tons by early fall — particularly if the current discount to tariff- and freight-adjusted world export pricing persists and domestic mill lead times remain extended.
For the time being, the fact that this is a holiday-shortened week makes it unsurprising that Nucor would pause its CSP run after 23 consecutive weekly hikes; next week’s letter will be watched closely. The underlying market reality, however, remains intact — supply-demand dynamics are extraordinarily tight, with long lead times and limited spot availability. In that context, imports are as much a solution to a lack of domestic availability as they are a pure arbitrage play.
On that basis, WSD believes there is still room for further pricing momentum in the weeks ahead. But should import bookings prove large enough to begin drawing down US mill order backlogs in the medium term, lead times would likely shorten and spot tonnage would become more available — a circularity that could ultimately upend the HRC price rally that has been underway since October 2025.