Nucor Pumps Brakes Again on HRC CSP
As word of sheet imports arriving on US shores after August makes the rounds, Nucor — for the second straight week — left its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for hot-rolled coil (HRC) unchanged. This, even though both buy- and sell-side market participants continued to cite a higher spot price range of $1,140-$1,150 per ton for transactions taking place in a tight market.
“Domestic mills’ lead times are into September,” a distributor in the South told WSD, “and spot availability remains limited. That’s supporting HRC prices, but Nucor appears to be getting ahead of things because cargoes are expected to arrive here after August.”
Steel trader sources tell WSD that HRC cargoes from Turkey and South Korea are expected to arrive by September and from Vietnam in October. Another source noted that cargoes from non-traditional countries, such as Algeria, Indonesia, and Malaysia, are also likely because their home markets are weak and their usual export outlets diminished.
“We know Nucor is watching the (import) situation,” a buyer at a Midwest service center told WSD. “They said so in last week’s CSP letter. But I don’t think this signals the end of the HRC price increases. Demand is still robust and people need steel.”
Two sources maintained that Nucor is aiming for “the sweet spot” between domestic HRC spot price offers and import prices. “Nucor is maybe trying to replicate their rebar (spot price) model,” explained one, “hoping to find that perfect spread between domestic and imported HRC.”
Right now, that spread varies depending on country of origin and ranges from about $130-$200 per net ton (landed price including tariff cost versus FOB price domestic mill). The price to Houston from Turkey for the September material is said to be $1,000 per nt delivered/duty-paid (DDP). From Vietnam, $940/ton DDP for October arrival, and from South Korea about $970/ton DDP.
“Nucor is being proactively cautious,” explained another source. “I think we’ll see stutter-step increases (to the HRC CSP offers) through the summer. For example, a slight hike next week, then none, then maybe another bump up, and so on.”
A mill sales rep was also watching the HRC futures market on the CME. “Market confidence is still evident, but not as strong as it has been showing,” he said.
In fact, the CME HRC forward curve now appears to be reflecting a weaker contango market than in recent months. With participants in the physical market reporting an upper-end spot price of $1,150 per ton, that’s just $5 below CME’s July contract settlement on Monday of $1,155/ton. In fact, none of Monday’s settlements were above $1,165/ton.
A Midwest steel distributor acknowledged that the steel and ferrous scrap markets could still be in a holiday mood after the long celebratory weekend in the US. “The scrap market for July has yet to take shape,” he said. “Most are expecting prime scrap grades to be sideways.”
WSD Take:
Nearing the Peak, with Imports Set to Test It WSD reiterates its forecast that USA HRC prices are likely approaching their peak. With spot transactions being reported in the $1,135-$1,150 per ton range, we see perhaps another $20-$30 per ton of upside remaining before the rally, underway since October 2025, crests.
As flagged in our June 9th USA Steel Dynamics Update and again in last week’s take, import pressure is likely to begin making its presence felt toward the end of the summer, with cargoes due to land in September and October. Chatter around import penetration into the US market continues to build, and the trade remains, in part, an arbitrage play – USA HRC pricing still sits well above the world export price even after elevated freight and 50% Section 232 tariff costs to deliver to the United States are counted.
That said, the apparent pickup in import activity is tied as much to the extraordinarily tight supply-demand dynamics in the US market as to pure arbitrage. Spot material remains very difficult to come by, domestic mill lead times continue to extend into September, and limited non-contractual availability remains a persistent feature of the market. In that context, as we observed last week, imports are as much a solution to a lack of domestic supply as they are an arbitrage opportunity.