EU HRC Prices Stabilize as Mills Test Market While Buyers Remain Cautious
HRC offers remained unchanged at €690-710/t EXW in Northern Europe and €680-700/t EXW in Southern Europe. Import offers into Italy were also stable at €590-610/t CIF.
Mills continue to test the market with offers well above current transaction levels, particularly for late-summer and September deliveries, driven by a belief that tighter import conditions would eventually force buyers to accept higher prices. However, buyers show limited willingness to follow the increases, often delaying purchases or negotiating aggressively, as many remain unconvinced that demand will justify further price increases.
Many buyers express a cautious and even defensive stance, preferring to secure only minimal volumes needed for immediate production rather than building inventories. Market participants note that trading activity has improved slightly compared with previous weeks, although purchasing remains largely driven by necessity rather than confidence in demand, reflecting a lack of visibility among end-users.
The new EU safeguard regime continues to dominate market sentiment. Producers increasingly view tighter import restrictions as structural support for domestic prices, and buyers acknowledge that reduced import availability will likely strengthen mills’ negotiating position during the fourth quarter. “However, buyers remain reluctant to act proactively, which seems somewhat paradoxical. Even though prices are expected to rise, consumers are not rushing to purchase steel in advance,” a German distributor noted.
Import activity remains extremely limited despite price discounts relative to European material. Buyers consider import offers unattractive after accounting for quota limitations, anti-dumping duties, CBAM costs and the growing risk of out-of-quota tariffs. Market participants also express concern about the unpredictability of the new TRQ system, preferring to avoid the risk of additional costs or delays. As a result, only a limited number of financially strong and risk-tolerant buyers continue booking overseas material, while the majority adopt a wait-and-see approach.
WSD Take.
WSD expects HRC prices at €710–730/t EXW NW Europe in July–August, with a jump to €780–800/t in September–November. High import risks are pushing buyers toward domestic supply. Steelmaking margins near their historical averages in June–July and weak apparent demand are likely to keep EU mills cautious on any output increases, which could mean domestic supply lags behind demand. Ramping up output will be a challenge for EU mills.
High inventories may cap price growth in the HRC segment. According to preliminary data, HRC imports in Q2 were 800 kt higher y/y. These volumes could soften the impact of reduced imports in Q3, so the main HRC price jump is likely in September. In Q4, the market will fully grasp the complexities of operating with imports under the new TRQ system, which, together with inventory drawdowns, will drive further price growth in Q1 2027.Americans and bad for Brazilians. For the past year, Lula has put his own ego ahead of making a deal for the welfare of the Brazilian people, and these tariffs are the price for that.”