USA HRC Spot Price Range at $1,220-$1,240/ton; Futures Surge
Limited availability and strong demand continue to exert upward pressure on the spot price for US-made hot-rolled coil, with both buyers and sellers telling WSD that typical transactions are now around $1,230 per ton or more. “Most mills are pretty far along in booking November, and anything sooner is very difficult to find,” a Midwest service center buyer said.
The financial market for HRC, however, provided the big news on Monday as HRC futures on the CME saw several forward contracts surge well above the $1,300 per ton mark—the first time breaching that level this year. Volume was strongest for December with 465 lots (9,300 tons) settling at $1,329 — about $100 above physical transactions.
Meanwhile, market participants continue to peg lead times at eight to ten weeks. Along with mill maintenance and fall outages further tightening up supply, demand continues to be buoyant.
“Steel customer order activity remains strong, supported by solid underlying demand and persistently low customer inventories, which continue to support favorable pricing conditions,” SDI noted in its third-quarter guidance issued late last week, adding, “Steel demand across key end markets remains solid, led by non-residential construction, energy, automotive, and industrial sectors.”
Nucor, which also provided third quarter guidance last week increased its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for HRC by $10 to $1,210 per ton on Monday, with offers from CSI on the west coast rising to $1,270 per ton.
“Mills in the South might have material at the lowest spot prices, but it’s scarce,” a trader told WSD. Assessing the HRC spot market geographically, he estimated recent spot deals at $1,220-$1,230/ton in the South; $1,225-$1,240/ton in the Midwest, and above $1,250/ton out West.
The same trader also noted that cold-rolled coil spot prices are “generally above $1,450 per ton from domestic mills,” or about $225/ton higher than HRC on average.
WSD Take: The current tightness is real. US hot-rolled coil has climbed from $1,085/ton in May to $1,240 in September, and metal margins over scrap have widened from $655 to $815 per ton. Demand has done its part: WSD’s Steel Demand Monitor turned positive in July at 118.3, automotive has held up better than expected with an August SAAR of 17.2 million (the best pace since April 2025), heavy truck is up 12.3% year on year, and ISM Manufacturing has expanded for eight straight months at 54.6. Data centers and infrastructure are carrying construction, with data-center investment up 24.6% year on year to $28.9bn in Q1 and 12 of 17 non-residential categories showing positive momentum.
The question for the rest of the year is supply. Lead times have held above nine weeks since the spring, HSM utilization has run at 88.0–88.5% since May, and service centers are still buying hand to mouth. Imports are the near-term relief valve: sheet imports rose from 4.5 million tons annualized in February to 7.5 million in August, and WSD expects an 8.0 to 8.5 million ton annualized rate through year-end as the tariff- and freight-adjusted arb has widened from $199/ton in March to $391 in September.
Domestic supply is building either way, with BRS 2 and Calvert ramping, the Gary reline complete, Granite City staying in, Nucor West Virginia due late in 2026, and Dearborn Furnace C by early 2027. Section 301 and Canada remain the open questions; a USTR decision would stack a tariff above the current 50% Section 232 rate, while a negotiated outcome with Canada would return meaningful tonnage.
WSD’s view is that tight supply will ease slowly over the next few months rather than abruptly. HRC could decline by as much as $100 per ton to $1,150 by early 2027 and continue renormalizing lower into 2027, with import volumes the key wild card.