EU HRC Prices Hold Steady as Weak Demand Limits Mills’ Pricing Power
HRC offers stayed at €740–760/t EXW in Northern Europe and €720–740/t EXW in Southern Europe. Import offers into Italy remained unchanged at €580–600/t CIF.
Mills remain reluctant to lower prices, supported by reduced import competition. Some producers have reportedly closed or nearly filled their fourth-quarter order books. However, mills understand that their higher offers are meeting resistance, with demand becoming the main obstacle to further price increases.
Many distributors and fabricators remain well supplied, reducing the need for additional purchases. Even when customers return to the market, they generally seek limited volumes and resist committing to longer delivery periods. Competitive offers for HRC continue to undermine mills’ pricing ambitions, as some service centers are willing to discount material from existing inventories to secure orders. “Nobody wants to accumulate inventory without understanding demand prospects. It’s better to sell now when orders appear and we can offer good terms,” an Italian trader told WSD.
The mood among distributors is therefore mixed. Some expect European HRC prices to approach €800/t by the end of the year, anticipating that inventories will gradually decline and customers will eventually have to accept higher replacement costs. Others are less confident, pointing to persistent weakness in manufacturing and uncertainty over whether end users can absorb another round of increases.
Import activity remains limited, although foreign HRC is still available. Many country-specific safeguard quotas have already been exhausted since the opening of the fourth-quarter allocation period on Oct. 1, while CBAM related uncertainty continues to discourage new bookings. Traders are consequently concentrating on selling previously imported material rather than taking on the risks associated with additional overseas purchases.
WSD Take.
WSD projects EU HRC prices at €760–770/t EXW Northwest Europe for October, down from our previous forecast of €780/t by the end of the month as weak demand slows the pace of increases, with a further jump to €780–800/t anticipated over November–December. In July–August, domestic steel production grew by only 1.5%, or 285,000 tonnes, while imports fell by 3.3 million tonnes. At the same time, EU mills are struggling to sell domestically as buyers hold back purchases.
At present, the gap between demand and supply is being covered from inventories. However, with inventories broadly flat in H1 2026, buyers have little room to keep delaying purchases. Imports are not a viable alternative to domestic supply: offers from sources with low TRQ and CBAM risks are noticeably higher and leave no room for arbitrage. Meanwhile, current margins of €174/t remain below the historical average of €180/t, giving mills little incentive to raise output. Higher prices are therefore needed to support the increase in domestic production required to close the gap left by falling imports.