Consumer Confidence Slips Again in July, but Auto and Appliance Buying Plans Firm
US consumer confidence edged lower in July, giving back June’s modest gain, with consumers’ read on current conditions softening for a third consecutive month, even as spending intentions for autos, homes and big-ticket appliances continued to improve.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased 1.4 points to 90.8 (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised 92.2 in June, the organization reported Tuesday, July 28. The reading came in below the consensus forecast of roughly 92.4.
The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell 3.6 points to 114.9, its third consecutive monthly decline. The Expectations Index, reflecting the short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, was unchanged at 74.7. The Conference Board notes that an Expectations Index reading below 80.0 has historically signaled a recession within the next year; the index has been below that level since February 2025.
“Consumer confidence moderated slightly in July, continuing a general downward sloping trajectory since late 2021,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index was less positive for a third consecutive month while the Expectations Index remained in negative territory. Consumer appraisals of current business conditions and, to a lesser extent, perceptions of the current labor market both softened.”
She added: “Looking ahead, consumers anticipate little improvement in business conditions over the next six months, but expectations for the labor market were slightly less negative. Expectations for household incomes moderated but remained optimistic overall.”
By component, net views of current business conditions fell 2.6 percentage points to +1.1%, barely holding positive territory: 18.9% of consumers called conditions “good,” down from 20.2% in June, while 17.8% called them “bad,” up from 16.5%. The labor market differential, those saying jobs are “plentiful” minus those saying jobs are “hard to get,” narrowed 0.7 point to +3.1%, driven by fewer consumers reporting plentiful jobs rather than by a jump in those finding work hard to get.
Within expectations, net views of future business conditions dipped 1.5 points to –3.3% and net income expectations eased 0.5 point to +7.3%, while net labor market expectations improved 1.3 points but stayed negative.
Homebuying and auto purchasing expectations both continued their upward trend on a six-month moving average basis. Among planned durable goods purchases within six months, furniture and smartphones remained the most desired items, but spending plans for TV sets, refrigerators and washing machines rose on a six-month moving average basis.
Consumers’ write-in responses remained mostly pessimistic. References to prices and to oil and gas eased in frequency but stayed elevated, while comments about food and grocery prices increased. Mentions of war, geopolitics and conflict eased during the sample period, though The Conference Board cautioned that recently reaccelerated fighting could lift those references in the revised July data. References to jobs and unemployment picked up slightly.
Both average and median 12-month inflation expectations were less elevated in July. Meanwhile, 61.3% of consumers, unchanged from June, still expected higher interest rates over the next 12 months, and consumers continued to expect higher stock prices a year from now.
Net views of families’ current financial situation improved after three months of deterioration, while views of future finances stayed healthy but slightly less optimistic. The share saying a US recession over the next 12 months is “somewhat likely” continued to rise, although overall recession expectations remain low and the share calling one “very likely” declined. Those measures are not included in the index calculation.
The survey period for the preliminary results ran July 1–22, encompassing the ongoing Middle East conflict. The Conference Board publishes the index at 10 a.m. ET on the last Tuesday of each month; the August reading is due August 25.