EU HRC Market Drifts as Buyers Resist and Trading Slows
HRC offers remain at €710-730/t EXW in Northern Europe and reduced by €10/t to €690-710/t EXW in Southern Europe. Import offers into Italy rose €30/t to €580-600/t CIF.
The dominant mood among buyers has turned increasingly “defensive.” Service centers and end-users widely view current price levels as close to a ceiling, limiting their willingness to commit to new volumes. Purchasing activity has been reduced to short-term or back-to-back deals, with many players relying on existing inventories rather than building new stock. Weak downstream demand continues to shape this cautious behavior, as distributors struggle to pass higher costs further along the value chain.
Producers, meanwhile, are attempting to maintain price discipline but face growing resistance. While official offers for upcoming deliveries, including July, have been set higher, these targets have gained little traction so far. Some mills holding unsold second-quarter volumes have shown greater flexibility, quietly conceding material below headline levels to clear remaining tonnages. This reflects a subtle shift from earlier confidence toward a more pragmatic approach in the face of slow demand.
Despite the current standstill, mills remain relatively composed overall. Order books for earlier months are largely filled, and the broader expectation is that regulatory factors will continue to support prices later in the year. The impact of CBAM and the upcoming changes to safeguard measures is still seen as a structural advantage for domestic producers, limiting import competition and underpinning future pricing power.
Import activity remains selective. Recent deals were reported for material from Turkey and North Africa, with prices below European domestic levels on a cost-and-freight basis. However, uncertainty around CBAM costs and logistical disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions continue to deter broader import interest, particularly from Asia. “Although buyers have learned to manage CBAM-related risks, uncertainty over how import quotas will be distributed by country remains the main barrier to new import deals”, a German trader believes.
WSD Take.
WSD forecasts HRC prices in May at €740-760/t NW Europe EXW, with the Q3 target raised to €820- 860/t. Import prices could decline in the summer months should the Strait of Hormuz re-open, which could lower the HRC price ceiling for Q3 to €820/t. However, buyers contracting imports in late April risk not receiving the product by the end of Q2 in the event of further transport disruptions.
The allocation of country-specific quotas under the updated TRQ is likely to be published only in June, which is insufficient time for normal contracting of July imports. No significant inventories are being built in Q1-Q2, so European buyers will likely be forced to accept mills’ offers. The margin for EU integrated steelmakers rose by €18/t m/m to €213/t, driven by lower energy prices and coal. This is sufficient to incentivize expanding local supply, but mills are maintaining production discipline to support elevated prices.