EU HRC Market Enters Stand-Off as Demand Fails to Support Price Hikes
HRC offers increased €10/t to €710-730/t EXW in Northern Europe, while remaining steady at €690-710/t EXW in Southern Europe. Import offers into Italy were unchanged at €530-550/t CIF.
Mills have largely secured their second-quarter order books and are increasingly focusing on July shipments, where offer levels have moved up to €750–760/t ex-works. However, buyers continue to view these targets as premature, pointing to stable consumption and sufficient inventories.
Market sentiment remains divided. Producers are confident, supported by strong order books, constrained import availability and expectations of tighter safeguards from July. Many mills see little urgency to compromise on pricing, especially as higher freight costs and geopolitical disruptions continue to restrict overseas supply.
Buyers, in contrast, remain cautious. Purchasing activity is largely limited to project-driven demand, while distributors and end-users rely on existing stocks accumulated earlier. The absence of a clear recovery in consumption is reinforcing resistance to further price increases, even as the broader trend remains upward. “As long as buyers can afford to stay out of the market, we are unlikely to see any significant price movement or pickup in activity. However, inventories are gradually being drawn down, and the situation is expected to shift over time”, an Italian distributor believes.
The import market continues to play a secondary role. New offers remain scarce due to a combination of CBAM related cost uncertainty, safeguard risks and logistical disruptions linked to tensions in the Middle East. While some material is available, including Indonesian and Turkish coil, overall demand for imports is limited as buyers struggle to assess the full cost and risk profile.
WSD Take.
WSD forecasts HRC prices in April at €710-740/t NW Europe EXW, with the Q3 target raised to €820- 860/t. WSD expects Q2 import volumes at the same levels as a year ago – 5.3Mt of flat-rolled and 2.0Mt of long products. However, if imports turn out stronger than our expectations, this would delay the expected price increase from late-April to May.
EU mills are cautiously increasing supply, that could create a lag in Q3 and lead to supply shortages. However, steelmakers enjoy healthy margins of around €193/t as of early April, vs €180/t average during 2017-2018. Risks for imports are rising in Q3 as TRQ could disrupt the current import system. The delay in the release of the country specific quota volumes makes it difficult to plan purchases/sales for July.