EU HRC Market Remains Static as Demand Lags and Buyers Stay Cautious

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HRC offers are unchanged at €600-620/t EXW in Northern Europe and €590-610/t EXW in Southern Europe, while import offers into Italy rose €10/t to €490–510/t CIF. Participants across the supply chain point to a persistent lack of real demand and widening disconnects between offer levels and achievable prices.

Producers continue to target higher prices for early 2026 delivery, but most buyers remain reluctant to engage. While mills float elevated offers for January and February shipment, distributors and service centers report little progress in closing deals, with customers holding back amid an uncertain market outlook. Buyers appear unwilling to commit to significant volumes. In the opinion of several service centers, inventory levels across Europe remain high enough to reduce urgency for restocking despite seasonal planning cycles.

The atmosphere is similarly subdued in the import market. Although some Asian-origin offers are available on a DDP basis, including embedded CBAM costs, buyers express limited interest, citing a combination of pricing unattractiveness, customs clearance delays, and regulatory risk. The lack of clarity around CBAM’s final benchmark values and safeguard rules for 2026 is only deepening hesitation. “Buyers don’t see reasons for importing HRC and other steel products. The final price, including CBAM-related costs, is not considered competitive”, a German trader believes.

While some service centers note modest improvements in sentiment and report a slight recovery in downstream sheet prices, others warn that this has not yet translated into substantial purchasing activity. Market expectations remain cautious, with participants anticipating more pronounced shifts only after current import inventories are absorbed in 1Q 2026.

WSD Take.

WSD reaffirms its Q1 HRC forecast of €620-660/t, noting that CBAM uncertainty will cap prices near term. Q1 imports could potentially contract by 20-30% y-o-y due to high uncertainty in calculating CBAM liabilities, providing support for a €20-30/t price increase across all segments come January-February.

A meaningful recovery in import activity is unlikely before Q2, once exporting mills have had the opportunity to complete emissions verification. Furthermore, from July 2025 onwards, imports will face additional effective restrictions due to a 40-43% reduction in tariff-rate quota volumes, which could support elevated price levels.

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