EU HRC Mills Push for Higher Prices as Buyers Remain on Sidelines
HRC offers remained unchanged at €740–760/t EXW in Northern Europe and €730–750/t EXW in Southern Europe, while import offers into Italy held steady at €590–610/t CIF.
European mills remain confident about their pricing power. Producers are seeking higher prices for January and first-quarter 2027 deliveries, with offers reaching around €790/t EXW or delivered, depending on the market and producer. Producers’ optimism is largely driven by higher production costs and reduced import competition. Rising energy prices have added pressure on mills, while EU safeguard quotas and CBAM have made overseas purchases more expensive and complicated.
Distributors and service centers, however, are considerably less optimistic about current market conditions. Many companies report that they still have sufficient material available to cover their requirements through the end of the year, allowing them to postpone new purchases until January or February. Some market participants also point to substantial volumes of imported steel awaiting customs clearance at European ports, reducing the immediate need for additional orders. “I believe buyers will have to return to the market sooner than they are suggesting. They have been holding off on purchases for a long time. They will need to replenish their inventories,” a German distributor told WSD.
The Italian market remains particularly sensitive to supply constraints after Italy’s Court of Cassation on Oct. 29 rejected Acciaierie d’Italia’s final appeal and upheld the order to shut down the hot end at its Taranto plant. Although the company produced only around 1 million tonnes of steel annually in recent years and had a relatively limited presence in the spot market, the closure has heightened supply concerns. The revised EU tariff-rate quotas introduced in July 2026 have restricted access for overseas suppliers, while CBAM has increased the costs and uncertainties associated with imported steel.
Some Italian buyers are responding by sourcing slabs from China, India and Turkey for processing at domestic rolling facilities, including those at Acciaierie d’Italia. This approach allows them to obtain semi-finished material that is not subject to the same trade restrictions as imported HRC and partially offset the reduced availability of finished steel.
Importers and traders remain cautious about new import bookings. The risk of exhausting quarterly quotas has discouraged purchases from several origins, particularly Turkey. The additional costs associated with CBAM and trade measures have made imports less attractive compared with domestic alternatives.
WSD Take.
EU prices are currently behaving as if the market were oversupplied. According to Eurofer, 10 million tonnes of capacity has been restarted, adding around 8 million tonnes of net capacity, or about 0.66 million tonnes per month, according to WSD estimates. The steelmaking margin fell to €157/t in October — the lowest since January 2026 and well below the historical average of €180/t. Mills can no longer afford to offer discounts.
At the same time, buyers cannot hold back purchases for long, as inventories are being drawn down very quickly. According to preliminary estimates, apparent consumption fell 11% y/y in Q3. With end-user activity expected to decline only slightly, by around 1.0% y/y, this implies a supply gap of 3.5 million tonnes in Q3. Restocking in October is unlikely, as imports may fall by more than 2.0 million tonnes y/y. For the market to balance, domestic output must grow along with apparent demand, which will support prices. WSD expects HRC prices at €760/t EXW NW Europe in November, with a further increase to €780–800/t by year-end.