EU HRC Prices Remain Stable as Mills Eye Gains in 2027
HRC offers stayed at €740–760/t EXW in Northern Europe and €720–740/t EXW in Southern Europe. Import offers into Italy remained unchanged at €580–600/t CIF.
European mills have maintained firm pricing despite subdued trading activity. Producers are not aggressively pushing for immediate increases, particularly as the end of the year approaches, but some market participants expect prices to rise further, with levels around €800/t considered achievable in early 2027. Their optimism is largely based on expectations of tighter domestic supply and reduced import competition. With European producers unlikely to increase output rapidly, domestic availability could become increasingly constrained if purchasing activity improves. In Italy, the future of Acciaierie d’Italia’s Taranto hot end remains unresolved after the Court of Cassation reserved its decision at an Oct. 20 hearing on the company’s appeal against the shutdown order. The court’s prosecutor general recommended upholding parts of the appeal, but no date has been set for a ruling.
However, buyers remain reluctant to accept higher prices under current market conditions. Purchasing activity is largely limited to immediate requirements, with distributors reporting little restocking. Customers continue to seek lower prices, but mills have limited willingness to negotiate, particularly as alternative sources of supply become less attractive.
Market attention is now turning to the EuroBLECH trade show in Hannover, where discussions on automotive contracts and future purchasing requirements could provide further indications of pricing expectations for 2027. The outcome of these negotiations may help clarify whether mills can translate their higher first-quarter offers into actual transactions. “Once automakers clarify their purchasing needs, we’ll have a better idea of how much their demand could impact HRC prices,” a German distributor said.
Service centers still face intense competition in downstream markets. Competitive offers for hot-rolled sheet and tubes are limiting demand for coil and making it difficult to pass higher replacement costs on to customers. As long as finished-product prices remain under pressure, distributors have little incentive to purchase additional HRC at substantially higher prices.
Buyers have become increasingly cautious about overseas purchases because of safeguard quotas, while unfavorable exchange-rate movements and higher freight costs have further reduced the competitiveness of imported HRC. Traders now consider imported material more expensive than domestic alternatives once all relevant costs are taken into account.
Despite the current lack of import activity, some overseas producers remain optimistic about future opportunities in Europe. Turkish mills, in particular, see the possibility of returning to the market if domestic European prices increase sufficiently to offset higher tariffs and other import costs. Some suppliers believe that European HRC prices could eventually exceed €800/t and potentially move considerably higher if domestic production proves insufficient to meet demand.
WSD Take.
WSD projects EU HRC prices at €760–770/t EXW Northwest Europe for October, with a further jump to €780–800/t anticipated over November–December. Buyers in the EU market are putting pressure on sellers by holding back purchases and ordering in small batches. This appears to be largely a negotiating tactic, as it does not reflect changes in underlying demand and supply. Activity in end-user sectors has cooled because of problems in the automotive industry, but the contraction is no deeper than 1–2% y/y, while apparent consumption fell 14% y/y in July–August. This implies a supply gap of 3.0 million tonnes compared with the same period last year.
The supply gap is too large for buyers to stay out of the market for long. Inventories are being depleted very quickly. Fundamentally, the market needs a significant increase in domestic output. However, steelmaking margins of €174/t remain below the historical average of €180/t, giving mills little incentive to raise production. At current margins, steelmakers are likely to take a firmer stance and push prices higher.