July 23, 2025:  EU HRC Market Stabilizes Near Lows as Buyers Navigate Post-Summer Strategies

Click here to sign up today for a free three-month trial to receive all the articles in the Industry News service along with our bi-monthly Forecast Reports.

Northern European HRC price offers fell by €10/t, reaching €530-550/t EXW. In Southern Europe HRC prices are stable – €520-540/t EXW.  Import price offers remain at €450-470/t CIF Italy.

Despite subdued overall activity, some mills are cautiously signaling that price levels may have reached their floor. Short lead times into late August and early September continue to indicate underutilized capacity, but improved Q4 order books and firmer contract talks for early 2026 have contributed to more balanced market expectations.

On the import front, competitive offers persist, but enthusiasm is limited by logistical uncertainty and the anticipated impact of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Traders say the interest in imports is tactical. Buyers are aiming to secure tonnages that will arrive before the end of 2025 to avoid complications from CBAM reporting, which takes full effect from January 2026. However, confusion about whether deliveries will be classified under 2025 or 2026 compliance periods has kept some buyers cautious.

Some service centers see signs of improvement in downstream segments, with demand for hot rolled sheet and tube products beginning to pick up. Market participants believe that this shift will help to stabilize the HRC market and could support a more confident start to Q4. “Demand is improving better than many market participants expected. It looks like price recovery is unavoidable in the fall”, Italian trader told WSD.

WSD Take. We believe HRC prices have likely bottomed out. Domestic mills have no room to lower offers further, as current margins are already near cyclical lows. Prices may rebound to around €610–620/t by the end of the year, supported by pre-CBAM restocking and a gradual recovery in demand. Firming iron ore and scrap prices could further bolster the upward trend.

A significant restocking wave is unlikely in July, with activity more likely to pick up in September. Purchasing may also be encouraged by tightening trade measures. Market speculation suggests that tariff quotas could be cut by 40–50% starting January 2026. This could effectively bring the current safeguard regime to an early end – well ahead of its scheduled expiration in June 2026 – and pave the way for stronger protectionist measures.