July 9, 2025

EU HRC Market Stays Subdued as Buyers Remain Cautious

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The market continues to stagnate, with no signs of near-term recovery as prices drift lower. In particular, domestic HRC price offers fell by €10/t, now ranging between €550-570/t EXW in Northern Europe and €520-540/t EXW in Southern Europe.  Import offers dropped by €10/t to €460-480/t CIF Italy.

The HRC market is still grappling with weak purchasing activity, limited sales volumes, and a lack of forward visibility. While import prices appear to have bottomed out, especially for large-volume transactions from Asia, buyers are proceeding selectively, motivated more by opportunistic deals than genuine restocking needs.

Despite historically low import prices, many buyers remain hesitant. Concerns around delivery lead times, material quality, and looming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) obligations are weighing on decisions. The window to import and clear material under the current CBAM framework is narrowing, creating added complexity for forward procurement planning.

Short lead times from European mills reflect continued weakness in their order books. Service centers and re-rollers, particularly in Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, are limiting purchases to small lots, as downstream sales of products like tubes and sheet remain under pressure. “If prices continue declining, we will see production cuts at European mills. They will try to stabilize the market”, European trader noted. 

Market players broadly expect prices to remain soft through July and into August, when seasonal production stoppages typically slow activity even further. Some traders anticipate that Q3 will mark the pricing floor, followed by a potential rebound in Q4 driven by the EU’s safeguard review, quota adjustments, and tighter CBAM enforcement.

WSD Take. We believe that prices below €550-560/t Northern Europe are not sustainable, although they can go lower considering current bearish momentum (though this weakness is likely temporary).  Northwest European HRC steelmaking margins dropped €50/t month-over-month to €118/t in early July – a level unsustainable for most regional producers. 

CBAM, effective from January 2026, is set to increase flat-rolled import costs by €40-50/t, which could be passed on via higher prices, according to our estimates. This is expected to drive restocking in Q4, so by year-end, prices could recover to €610-620/t. However, price levels remain uncertain, as the market may face pressure in October-December due to import inflows and weak domestic mill utilization.