EU Steel Mills Test Price Increases Amid Regulatory Tailwinds

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HRC offers rose by €10/t to €580-600/t EXW in Northern Europe and €555-575/t EXW in Southern Europe, while import offers remained steady at €480-495/t CIF Italy. Despite continued weak demand and subdued import appetite, domestic producers appear increasingly confident in pushing the market upward, leveraging upcoming regulatory shifts to support their price ambitions.

Market participants report a growing divergence between mill optimism and buyer hesitancy. While producers point to future supply constraints linked to evolving EU trade policy, including CBAM and revised safeguard measures, distributors and service centers cite still-low consumption across industrial sectors and unclear CBAM compliance issues. “Buyers are holding off on placing new orders – they await greater clarity on CBAM and the new safeguards”, German trader told WSD.

Import activity remains quiet. Even as some import suppliers began quoting carbon footprint values and embedding estimated CBAM costs, traders said risk perceptions remained too high to prompt major commitments. Some largescale importers had frontloaded shipments over the summer in anticipation of tightening restrictions, though those volumes will not be able to offset future limitations fully.

Most buyers are looking toward the Blechexpo trade fair in Stuttgart next week as a potential pivot point for negotiations and sentiment. Some expect mills to use the event to announce further price increases and secure long-term contracts before new quotas and CBAM accounting take full effect in 2026.

WSD Take.

WSD forecasts that the average CBAM-related costs will amount to €60-65/t for BF-BOF imports, largely expected to be passed through into flat-rolled steel prices. This is already reflected in the market, with current import offers for Q1 delivery standing approximately €40/t above Q4 delivery prices.

As such, according to our expectations, HRC prices will reach €610-620/t EXW NW Europe by December, averaging €650/t in Q1 2026. Imports in Q1 2026 could contract by 12-15% y/y. During this period, CBAM is expected to function as a technical barrier, curtailing import volumes due to heightened risks.

WSD forecasts that the new market defense system will be launched in July 2026 and is expected to trigger a potential supply shortage as operable flat-rolled utilization rates, according to our proprietary model, will exceed 88% in Q3 2026 and 94% in Q2 2027. Driven by new safeguard measures, HRC prices could climb to €720-740/t in Q3 2026.

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