EU:  July 30, 2025:   EU Steelmakers Test Higher HRC Prices Amid Weak Demand

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Northern European HRC price offers rose €10/t, reaching €540-560/t EXW. In Southern Europe HRC prices are stable – €520-540/t EXW. Import price offers remain at €450-470/t CIF Italy.

Steel mills are pushing higher offers for fourth-quarter deliveries, but buyers remain skeptical about the sustainability of the possible upward trend, pointing to sluggish demand, an inactive summer market, and continued uncertainty around trade policy and downstream activity. Most tradable business is concentrated around €540-550/t, as buyers show limited willingness to accept increased price offers amid soft spot demand.

Some participants are cautiously hopeful that a combination of tighter supply and import constraints, especially regarding CBAM and EU safeguards, could support higher prices in the autumn. Others remain unconvinced, highlighting that downstream demand has yet to show meaningful signs of recovery, particularly in the construction and automotive sectors.

A few service centers and distributors acknowledged a modest improvement in forward purchasing, especially Q4 bookings, as buyers begin to position themselves for potential post-holiday price movement. However, most believe that any upward adjustment will be modest and heavily dependent on whether mills can successfully limit production and imports remain subdued.

“Without a clear rebound in real demand, any price recovery is likely to be slow, uneven, and vulnerable to setbacks. The trade “deal” with the US could support demand, but I don’t expect big immediate impact”, a European trader told WSD.

WSD Take. According to our proprietary model, Northwest European steelmaking margins collapsed to €105/t in mid-July, a non-viable level well below the historical average (€170/t), pressured by falling steel prices and rising raw material/energy costs. This unsustainable squeeze signals imminent corrective price actions. The price hike announced in the previous week provided some margin recovery to €115/t, though levels remain depressed.

As such, the dip in HRC prices below €550/t EXW NW Europe was short-term, as WSD previously expected. A price rebound to €560-580/t by September and further recovery to €610-620/t by year-end on pre-CBAM stockbuilding looks justified. However, a sustained rally to higher levels is only expected by March-May 2026, as Q4 faces lingering import pressure.

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