European Mills Defend Higher HRC Prices Amid Limited Import Pressure
HRC offers rose €10/t to €700-720/t EXW in Northern Europe and €690-710/t EXW in Southern Europe. Import offers remained at €520-540/t CIF Italy.
Producers remain confident, supported by solid order books and longer lead times. Many mills see limited need to compete for volumes and are maintaining a disciplined approach to sales. The current environment allows suppliers to hold firm on pricing, particularly as imports remain constrained by CBAM-related costs, safeguard uncertainty and logistical disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions.
At the same time, buyer sentiment remains cautious. Service centers and end-users continue to rely heavily on existing inventories accumulated in late 2025, limiting their need for spot purchases. Purchasing strategies are focused on short-term requirements, with little appetite for large-volume commitments. High stock levels across warehouses and fabricators continue to weigh on transaction activity, even as prices trend upward. Downstream sectors are facing growing difficulty in passing on higher steel costs, adding further resistance to aggressive purchasing.
The import market offers limited relief. While some material remains available from earlier bookings or on a delivered-duty-paid basis, new import activity is subdued due to cost uncertainty and reduced competitiveness versus domestic supply. As a result, many buyers are increasingly shifting toward European mills.
Market views are increasingly split. While mills and some distributors expect further price increases supported by structural supply constraints, many buyers remain skeptical about the sustainability of the uptrend in the absence of stronger end-user demand. Concerns are also emerging that rising costs, combined with geopolitical uncertainty, could weigh on downstream manufacturing activity in the coming months.
WSD Take.
WSD expects April HRC prices at €700-730/t, with a probable jump in the second half of the month. In the coming weeks, price hikes are unlikely ahead of the anticipated inflow of imports in April. Flat-rolled imports in April are expected to be in line with year-ago levels, as the price attractiveness of imports remains strong. Another round of price increases is likely in the second half of April, once most Q2 import opportunities have been exhausted.
Local supply is clearly in no rush to ramp up, with mills maintaining production discipline, which will strengthen their ability to push through price increases to buyers. If steel output in March is again weak, inventory dynamics in Q1 will be negative. This situation could continue in Q2. The market is unlikely to build stocks ahead of the TRQ tightening, leaving buyers more vulnerable.