European Mills Hold Firm HRC Prices as Supply Tightens
HRC offers remained at €690-710/t EXW in Northern Europe and €680-700/t EXW in Southern Europe. Import offers are €520-540/t CIF Italy.
Producers remain confident, supported by limited availability of May volumes and preparations to offer June production. Some mills have been selectively active in the market, prioritizing margins over volumes and showing little urgency to secure additional orders. Rising energy and fuel costs, linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, are further reinforcing mills’ determination to maintain higher price levels.
At the same time, buyer sentiment is more mixed. While some distributors and end users have returned to the market in recent days, concerned about potential shortages and further price increases, most continue to purchase cautiously and in smaller volumes. Restocking remains measured, as buyers assess whether current disruptions will translate into sustained supply tightness or eventually weigh on demand.
Offers from overseas suppliers have been limited, while rising freight costs, longer delivery times and uncertainty around CBAM charges have significantly reduced the attractiveness of foreign material. Delivered import prices are close to domestic levels, narrowing arbitrage opportunities and reinforcing buyers’ preference for European supply. “Some suppliers have even withdrawn their offers amid logistics disruptions and rising freight costs linked to the Middle East conflict. As a result, the pool of suppliers available for European buyers to replenish stocks is shrinking,” a German trader noted.
Overall, sentiment across the European HRC market remains cautiously bullish. Mills are setting high price offers, supported by structural constraints on supply, while buyers are gradually adapting to rising levels but remain mindful of weak end-user demand. The market continues to balance expectations of further increases against lingering uncertainty over the sustainability of the current uptrend.
WSD Take.
WSD forecasts HRC prices in March-April at €690-710/t NW Europe EXW, with a gradual increase to €760-780/t by June-July. With April import volumes largely already committed, buyers are being forced to turn to domestic supply, which is not ramping up quickly. However, achieving higher prices in the coming weeks is unlikely. The next round of flat-rolled price increases could occur in late April-May, when import volumes will no longer be available for delivery in the second quarter.
Judging by January’s steel output dynamics, EU steelmakers are in no rush to ramp up production, maintaining production discipline to push through higher offers. Current steelmaking margins (€206/t for HRC compared with €180/t in 2017-2019) are sufficient to stimulate output growth in the coming months. Should steelmakers delay their response to rising demand, the market may face supply shortages, with imports exceeding quota limits.