HRC Futures Hit $1,000; USA Spot Prices at $975-$985/ton
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Strong steel mill order books, low levels of imports and firming pockets of demand are all combining to keep nudging domestic-made hot-rolled coil (HRC) spot prices toward $1,000 per ton. In fact, HRC steel futures for the March contract on the CME already hit that mark in early trading Tuesday. And on Monday, Nucor raised its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for HRC to $990 per ton.
As far as the physical market, at least two mill sales reps tell WSD some “thousand-dollar HRC” has already been booked, but most market participants on both the sell- and buy-sides peg the spot market range for typical order sizes at $975- $985 per ton, early this week.
“The order book is robust, fed steadily by mostly contract business,” said one mill rep, echoing the case across much of the market. Lead times are generally reported at a five-to-eight-week range, “but some mills are out to as long as nine, ten weeks,” said a Midwest service center buyer.
Reliance CEO Karla Lewis noted on the company’s recent earnings call that buyers of carbon steel are coming off low customer inventory levels. She added: “But also mill lead times are going out, which is always a positive sign. And people are looking to be able to secure the metal.”
Quotes on the CME were all higher Tuesday mid-day, with March trades between $997-$1000/ton. The most active contract was April with 145 lots trading from a low of $992 to a high of $997.
WSD Take:
Since late last year, World Steel Dynamics has been adamant that most of the upturn in steel prices since late October was driven by fundamentally tight supply-demand dynamics. The primary catalyst was an extreme pullback in imports. Total monthly imports fell to 1.5 million tons, with sheet imports dropping as low as 5.1 million tons annualized in November and December.
This contraction in foreign supply coincided with significant out-of-season maintenance outages in October and November. At the same time, inventories had reached absolutely rock-bottom levels, necessitating restocking. The combination of constrained supply, operational downtime, and inventory rebuilding extended mill lead times and supported a steady rise in prices. Between October and the end of February, prices increased by nearly $200 per ton.
From the outset, we consistently wrote that in the absence of a robust recovery in demand, the stability of this price increase could eventually hit a wall.
Now, there is growing evidence that demand may be moving in an improving direction.
Since the beginning of February, manufacturers have increased their general optimism. The ISM manufacturing PMI rose above 50, entering expansionary territory for the first time in years. Industrial production activity has increased fairly broadly across major steel-consuming industries. There are also signs of slight improvement in consumer-related production, including automotive. Indicators show automotive production up versus January 2025, and permitting for both single-family and multifamily housing has increased in recent days.
The key question remains: Is this enough demand to stabilize pricing?
The answer will depend on the extent to which imports begin to renormalize over the next several months. WSD has heard early rumors that import volumes could begin to rise in March and April. The stability of pricing in the early second quarter will likely be determined by whether demand outperforms this potential shift in steel supply.
In short, the next phase of the market will not hinge solely on improving demand — but on whether that improvement is strong enough to absorb a possible return of supply.
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