Muted Spot Activity Persists in EU HRC Market Despite Firm Mill Sentiment

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HRC offers held at €590-610/t EXW in Northern Europe and increased by €10/t to €585-605/t EXW in Southern Europe, while import offers remained unchanged at €480-495/t CIF Italy. Market participants have shifted their focus toward long-term contract negotiations for 1Q 2026. Mills have largely filled their order books for the remainder of the year and are maintaining firm offer levels for January deliveries, despite limited transactional activity on the spot market.

Sentiment across the supply chain is shaped mainly by policy expectations. Buyers, aware of regulatory risks tied to CBAM and new safeguards, are largely covering only immediate needs while postponing new commitments. Distributors report subdued end-user demand, particularly in industrial sectors, yet acknowledge that tight availability and rising input costs are supporting the current price floor.

“European steel producers are in a comfortable position – they can afford to wait until buyers return to the market and accept their offers. In contrast, other suppliers are uncertain about which strategy to choose amid current uncertainty”, Italian trader told WSD.

While some restocking is expected ahead of Q1 2026, there is still considerable caution on the buy side. Market participants remain unsure how CBAM-related costs will ultimately be distributed between traders and end-buyers, complicating decisions around imported material. As a result, interest in imports has declined, even as some offers look competitive.

WSD Take.

WSD reiterates its previous forecast: HRC prices could reach €610-620/t EXW NW Europe in November-December, average €650/t in Q1, and €760-780/t in Q3 2026. Flat-rolled prices could extend gains into 2027, peaking in Q2. However, subsequent supply growth and tepid demand may then lead to price stagnation.

The absence of activity from both exporters and buyers for Q1 deliveries amid prevailing uncertainty heightens the risk of supply disruption in January 2026. WSD expects Q1 imports to decline by 12-15% y/y. The adoption of the new steel safeguard system in its current draft would imply a 50% drop in imports by Q3 2026 and a real risk of supply shortages in the market.

Rising prices will make the EU market the most attractive globally. As a result, increased shipments from the US, UK, Japan, Egypt, and other countries can be expected, including the potential return of suppliers previously affected by anti-dumping duties.

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