Nucor’s Message: It’s Not All About Lower Imports

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It was made clear on Nucor’s earnings call Tuesday that the recent steel pricing surge isn’t only supply-driven. While its (and other domestic) steel mills have clearly benefited from US trade policy, the demand side of the equation is also percolating.

“Look at the demand profile against the backdrop of a really healthy and robust economy outside of just steel,” said Nucor CEO Leon Topalian in response to an analyst’s question. “You’re seeing growth, reshoring, investments, nuclear energy, like just a number of facets that are creating this. So, it’s not a false narrative that — it’s the only reason pricing is up because President Trump put in place tariffs. That’s not it at all.”

He added: “Shoot, it wasn’t five, six months ago, we saw HRC at $800 a ton. So, it’s not that. It’s a much broader economic picture of strength of the US and why every foreign investment wants to come and build here. It’s why you saw — and now — what was a US company, now a Japanese company, U.S. Steel. It’s not an American company today. It is a Japanese-owned company.”

Regarding trade policy, Topalian did emphasize that “vigorous enforcement of our trade remedy laws and the full reinstatement of the Section 232 steel tariffs without exemptions last year have helped drive down steel imports.” He noted the foreign import share of the USA’s finished-steel market has dropped from approximately 25% at this time last year to 16% in October and an estimated 14% in November.

“We expect imports will continue to trend at or below those levels in 2026 as the market absorbs the full impact of the Section 232 tariffs and recent trade case determinations,” Topalian said.

During 2025, the Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission made important rulings regarding unfairly traded imports of corrosion-resistant steel and rebar, Topalian added. “Together, the Section 232 tariffs and product-specific trade cases provide vital defenses against countries that seek to dump their steel into the US market,” he said. “We appreciate the efforts the federal government took in 2025 to level the playing field for the American steel industry.”

Moving forward, trade policy will remain a priority for the steel industry, according to Topalian. “The formal USMCA review beginning in July offers the opportunity to drive additional steel demand in North America, crack down on efforts to transship steel through Mexico and Canada and address steel subsidies provided by the Canadian government,” he said.

Overall, for 2026, Topalian said: “We continue to see strength in many of our primary end markets, including infrastructure, data centers and energy, and in energy infrastructure. We are also seeing healthy demand related to advanced manufacturing in the border fence.” He acknowledged, nonetheless, that “We have yet to see much improvement from interest rate-sensitive markets like automotive and residential construction. In total, we expect domestic steel demand to be slightly up relative to 2025.”

For the full year, Nucor has said it expects steel mill shipments to increase about 5% compared to 2025.

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