Price Uptrend in the EU HRC Market Continues Amid Cautious Optimism

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HRC offers rose €10/t to €660-680/t EXW in Northern Europe and to €640-660/t EXW in Southern Europe. Import offers remained at €500-520/t CIF Italy.

Integrated European steelmakers continue to push for higher prices for April deliveries. Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, supported by expectations of reduced import availability due to the ongoing implementation of CBAM and upcoming EU safeguard measures. “Domestic producers are well aware of their pricing power, so they will try to increase prices further”, according to a German distributor.

Import activity remains subdued. Despite reports of large volumes of Turkish HRC sold into the EU, most buyers are hesitant to commit to new contracts amid ongoing uncertainty over the true cost of CBAM. Meanwhile, many service centers and stockholders are still working through high inventories built up in the second half of 2025, ahead of the new carbon rules taking effect.

As domestic supply tightens and imports volumes face increasing regulatory pressure, sentiment across the market has shifted cautiously upward. Some participants expect greater acceptance of higher prices in the coming weeks, especially if second-quarter import quotas are exhausted quickly. Still, weak end-user demand continues to temper aggressive restocking, leaving buyers selective and focused on short-term needs.

WSD Take.
WSD forecasts the HRC price in February-March at €660-680/t NW Europe EXW, with a gradual increase to €760-780/t by June-July. For most suppliers, current prices are sufficient to continue imports into the EU. For example, the DDP-CFR spread for Turkiye and India covers the expected CBAM payments. So, flat-rolled imports in January were relatively high, that capped price increases.

Imports are expected to slow sharply in February-March after key suppliers exhaust their quotas. The need for increased supply to restock ahead of the TRQ tightening will support a recovery in EU mills’ margins, which reached €142/t of HRC in January. This is below the 2017-2019 average of €180/t and falls short of what’s needed to stimulate the required increase in domestic production.

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