Reports of $950 US HRC; Most Deals Around $920/ton, But Elusive
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Buyers and sellers are reporting sparse activity early this week to WSD, with limited spot deals around $920 per ton for an average size order, but some around $950/ton. Nucor again raised its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for HRC by another $10 to $940/ton on Monday—its highest level since publishing the CSP started in April 2024.
“A lot of spot order books are closed for January,” said one service center buyer, adding, “Most mills are servicing contract orders, and either never offered spot for January or quickly took in a few spot orders and then stopped.”
A steel distributor noted: “As the year winds down, it’s tough to find HRC spot material. I think you’d expect to pay at least $920, for average tonnage.” A major mill sales rep claimed that they did book recently “quite a few tons for smallish orders at $940-$960/ton and have now closed January.”
A steel trader said: “Lead times are already pushing into early February as mills satisfy contract orders and imports continue to diminish.”
In fact, on a three-month rolling average through September, imports of HRC sheet are down more than 18%, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI, see related story below).
“We’re seeing historically low import penetration—14% in September and likely to go even lower,” said the trader, reacting to the latest data.
AISI, in a subsequent press release, noted that the USA’s finished import market share was estimated at 15% in October, based on the Commerce Department’s most recent Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis (SIMA) data. But steel import permit applications for the month of October totaled 1,591,000 net tons—a 3.7% decrease from the 1,652,000 permit tons recorded in September and a 2.0% increase from the September final imports total of 1,560,000 nt.
Taking Nucor’s current $940 offering as reflective of the physical market, the futures contango market of recent weeks is now leveling off, based on settlements Monday of the CME’s HRC futures contracts. Notably, the February CME HRC contract settled at $948/ton Monday, and monthly settlements through May 2026 all showed strength above $900/ton. U
WSD Take:
WSD remains of the opinion that HRC prices are on a trajectory to $950 per ton – as the norm, rather than the current outlier — in the near term. If it were not for the upcoming holiday season, more momentum may be behind price acceleration.
Supply is undoubtedly constrained. Even as fall maintenance comes to an end, the combination of a nearly 50% decline in sheet imports year over year (by all accounts early November licensing is pointing to a decade low level of sheet imports) and continued tight inventories are putting mills in an advantaged position to continue raising prices into 2026.
HRC spot prices of $950-$975 per ton by mid-January would be unsurprising, and any boost in steel demand entering next year could easily push pricing into the $1,000 per ton range.
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