Safeguard Proposals Support EU HRC Market, but Buyers Remain Hesitant

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HRC offers in Northern Europe climbed €10/t to €570-590/t EXW. In Southern Europe prices are stable at €545- 565/t EXW, with import offers also steady at €480-495/t CIF Italy.

Buyer sentiment remains divided. Service centers and distributors continue to point to sluggish spot consumption and limited project activity. Many buyers had already covered short-term needs in previous months and were reluctant to commit to new volumes without clearer visibility on year-end demand and downstream offtake.

The European Commission’s draft safeguard proposal has triggered widespread debate. While producers generally welcomed the prospect of tighter import controls, many downstream consumers and traders expressed concern about the proposal’s implications for availability, price competitiveness, and the risk of cost inflation. A key concern across the supply chain remains the timing of implementation and the specifics of quota allocations, both of which remain unclear.

Buyers are not interested in imports citing quota exhaustion, longer lead times and the unresolved CBAM rules which are expected to significantly affect the cost structure of imported steel from 2026 onward. “It’s clear that the new safeguard measures and CBAM will raise barriers to imports, but the rules for both mechanisms remain vague.

Market participants are actively speculating about their potential impact, yet nobody fully understands the consequences for their business and steel market in general”, a German trader explains WSD. Many market players anticipate that domestic producers will use the momentum from the regulatory news to issue new offers in the €600-630/t range, although the success of such increases remains uncertain given the fragile demand backdrop. For now, the EU HRC market appears to be entering a period of recalibration – supported by regulatory shifts but still constrained by fundamental demand-side weakness.

WSD Take.

We anticipate prices will begin to trend upwards in the coming weeks. By December, HRC prices could reach €610-620/t EXW NW Europe. This movement will be driven by the impending CBAM. WSD forecasts that the average CBAM-related costs will amount to €60-65/t for BF-BOF imports, largely expected to be passed through into flat-rolled steel prices.

The implementation of a new, more restrictive “trade defense system” in Q3 2026 is set to slash imports by approximately 50% y/y, potentially creating a significant supply shock. On that basis Q3 2026 HRC prices could climb to €720-740/t. Lasting price levels for HRC at €800/t or above are unlikely, as they would make imports viable even with the 50% import duty.

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