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Steel Decarbonization Dynamics Service (SDDS)

Insights into the Steel Industry’s carbon conundrum

WSD’s critical, opinionated, comprehensive and independent approach makes the Steel Decarbonization Dynamics Service (SDDS)* a “must-have” for those seeking a realistic and grounded perspective with respect to steel industry’s immense “decarbonization” challenge.

SDDS takes a pragmatic stance, focusing not on what should or needs to happen, but rather on what is likely to happen with respect to industry decarbonization.  It focuses on both the “what” and the “so what” of industry decarbonization, for example what is happening and what are the implications for producers, suppliers, customers, investors, governments & NGOs.

SDDS provides integrated and internally consistent forecasts for industry production levels, emissions, cost structures, raw material markets, steel prices and trade balances; it incorporates our technology assessment between the macro (big step change) developments with micro (shop floor level) operating improvement levers and cost-versus-emissions tradeoffs.

The service includes:

  1. Decarbonization Cost and Emissions Data Output

WSD’s leading expert analysts with over 100 years combined experience in the global steel and raw materials industry developed a proprietary Decarbonization Cost and Emissions Model that includes over 130 data points (Crude Steel and Raw Material) for over 40 countries/regions

The data output leverages our suite of data tools to bring you global and regional forecasts that integrate:

  • Data points derived from our Global Metallics Balance Service
    • Steel demand, production and trade
    • Raw material supply, demand** and prices
  • Industry CO2 emissions forecasts on the path to carbon neutrality to 2030*
  • Technology innovation, dispersion and adoption and carbon pricing scenarios
  • Analysis of CO2 cost impacts on steel producers’ cost structure
  • Regional reference plants based on WSD’s Global Cost Models
  • Existing, transitional and new technologies
  • Carbon price scenarios and sensitivities
  • Raw material and energy input scenarios

You will receive these data points and forecast on a quarterly basis delivered directly to your email.

Our leading expert analysts include, John Lichtenstein, Richard Oppelt, Philipp Englin and Adam Green.  For more background, click here.

Sample Data Output:  Click to download
  1. Decarbonization Projects Database: An active database of major industry investments in green steel technology. This is updated monthly and delivered via an online portal available on our Global Steel Intelligence System (GSIS):
    • Steel producer CO2 reduction projects and initiatives tracked by technology type, including direct emissions reduction, carbon capture, hydrogen-based iron making, carbon recycling into steel products, and green energy sources
    • Other company and industry initiatives, such as green steel certifications
    • Individual steel company CO2 emissions data and announced future targets
    • Key actions by mining companies, industry associations, and governments
    • Steel and Mining Companies’ investments

  1. Report and Analysis, including over 100 slides of data and opinions. The Report features forecasts for 2030 industry CO2 emissions by country/region. These are derived from WSD’s assessments of future developments in steel markets, raw material markets, detailed steelmaker operating parameters and cost structures, and technology development and adoption rates. WSD has supplemented its vast in-house knowledge through extensive conversations with steel producers, technology equipment suppliers and technical experts. The forecasts are powered by WSD’s “Steel Industry Decarbonization and Cost Model” which captures the emissions impacts and emissions-versus-cost tradeoffs for step-change technology implementations and incremental operating practice improvements:
    • Executive summary and analysis of findings
    • Technology assessments, including probabilities and timelines to adoption and commercialization
    • Evolution of carbon pricing and taxing in key regions
    • Industry restructuring implications and scenarios
    • Trade implications and scenarios for Carbon Border Adjustment
    • Implications for steel markets, suppliers and other stakeholders
    • Additional content from outside experts and stakeholders

REQUEST SAMPLE REPORT

WSD is available for customized presentation, consultation with your Board of Directors, Management Team, etc.  Schedule a call today for more information

 

* Initially with an outlook to 2030, followed by a second release in December 2023 focused on the outlook to 2040.  The 2050 outlook will be available in June 2024.

** Based on WSD Global Metallics Model

 

 

WSD’s uniquely holistic approach integrates our vast in-house databases with expert perspectives to address such questions as:

  • How quickly can the industry decarbonize? What are realistic milestones going forward? What are the key enablers for decarbonization at the regional level?
    • How will decarbonization disrupt global raw materials markets?
    • Will decarbonization drive a structural increase in steelmaking costs, and if so, what price increases will be required to maintain margins? Will there be a green steel premium?
  • To what extent will green credentials become a basis for competition
    • How will a reconfigured global cost curve combined with growing protectionism and reshoring trends reshape steel trade?
      • What are the expected operating cost differentials among different configurations/process routes with and without carbon taxes?
    • How quickly will China pivot to EAF steelmaking and what are the implications for the global scrap market?
    • Will there be a shortage of DR grade pellets, and if so, what will be the price premium?
    • How much DRI capacity will be built this decade, where, and with what mixes of reductants?
    • How might decarbonization drive industry restructuring in terms of consolidation and new entrants?

The SDDS leverages our suite of data tools to bring you global and regional forecasts that integrate:

  • Steel demand, production and trade
  • Raw material supply, demand** and prices
  • Industry CO2 emissions forecasts on the path to carbon neutrality to 2030*
  • Technology innovation, dispersion and adoption and carbon pricing scenarios
  • Analysis of CO2 cost impacts on steel producers’ cost structure
  • Regional reference plants based on WSD’s Global Cost Models
  • Existing, transitional and new technologies
  • Carbon price scenarios and sensitivities
  • Raw material and energy input scenarios

Online database of key developments, updated bi-weekly

  • Steel producer CO2 reduction projects and initiatives tracked by technology type, including direct emissions reduction, carbon capture, hydrogen-based iron making, carbon recycling into steel products, and green energy sources
  • Other company and industry initiatives, such as green steel certifications
  • Individual steel company CO2 emissions data and announced future targets
  • Key actions by mining companies, industry associations, and governments
  • Steel and Mining Companies investments

Report contents published twice per year:

  • Executive summary and analysis of findings
  • Technology assessments including probabilities and timelines to adoption and commercialization
  • Evolution of carbon pricing and taxing in key regions
  • Industry restructuring implications and scenarios
  • Trade implications and scenarios for Carbon Border Adjustment
  • Implications for steel markets, suppliers and other stakeholders
  • Additional content from outside experts and stakeholders

Pre-Recorded On-demand webinar presentation of report findings.

 

 

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