Slim Activity in USA HRC Spot Market, Prices Remain Around $950/ton
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Spot prices for US-made hot-rolled coil (HRC) continue to range between $940-$960 per ton, but activity is limited, market participants tell WSD early this week. Lead times are into March in many cases, according to several mill sales reps, as mills are still focused mainly on servicing contract customers.
Nucor’s Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for HRC was raised to $960 per ton Tuesday morning. Monday, the 19th was a holiday in the US—the day Nucor usually posts its CSP. The company’s spot price is up 11%, or $95 per ton since CSP’s recent low of $865 per ton on August 18th. Also, Nucor’s base price for CSI HRC on the west coast now tops $1,000 per ton after increasing to $1,010 per ton on Tuesday.
As Nucor says when posting its CSP, lead times for all spot orders will be offered between three-to-five weeks. Buyers tell WSD, however, that availability is limited.
HRC futures trading is showing a slight contango market through the first quarter. The January contract was trading between $938-$943 early Tuesday. February quotes were between $962-$967, and it is also the strongest month in terms of volume (84 lots, early Tuesday).
The March contract price is the loftiest — at between $975-$977 per ton. Futures prices slide thereafter in the second quarter—based on just a handful of trades so far.
WSD Take:
Key U.S. HRC pricing indices continued to push higher over the last week, extending the upward trend that has been in place since early November as tight supply-demand conditions and elevated lead times continue to support near-term pricing power. WSD remains of the view that these dynamics could carry spot pricing as high as $975– $1,000/ton in the coming weeks. In WSD’s base case, absent a clear improvement in underlying demand, prices are still likely to turn down in early spring—potentially beginning as soon as mid-February—as inventories rebuild to sufficient levels and lead times begin to normalize following a prolonged ramp-up.
After a weak demand environment in 2025, demand in 2026 has yet to resume in full force, with a persistent “wait-and-see” attitude among end consumers limiting the ability for momentum to sustainably accelerate, even as supply remains relatively tight.
Domestic uncertainty continues to be the key risk to future pricing dynamics such as affordability pressures and a sluggish job market that continue to weigh on consumer-driven sectors such as single-family housing and automotive. At the same time, broader geopolitical uncertainty, from developments involving Venezuela to ongoing negotiations surrounding Greenland, are also influencing investment decision-making and reinforcing hesitancy across the U.S. industrial base.
That said, WSD continues to believe a price rebound could be increasingly likely later in the year if conditions begin to normalize and monetary policy turns more supportive. A potentially more stimulative Fed stance in the second half of 2026, particularly following a shift in leadership later in Q2, could unlock a stronger recovery in real demand. With WSD not expecting a significant resurgence of imports into the U.S., the market could tighten quickly if demand improves— raising the likelihood that HRC rebounds back above $950/ton, with upside risk extending into mid-to-late 2026.
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