The Conference Board USA Leading Economic Index® Dips Slightly in January
The Conference Board reported Thursday morning that its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US inched down by 0.1% in January 2026 to 97.5 (2016=100), following a 0.2% decline in December. The global think tank noted, however, the data does not yet reflect impact from the war in Iran and that its 2026 US GDP growth forecast is being revised slightly downward.
“The US LEI fell further in January, as consumer expectations retreated again and building permits softened,” Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board, said in a statement. “While the topline LEI continues to signal headwinds to economic activity, the strengths among its components on the six-month basis were widespread for three straight months (November 2025–January 2026), with seven out of ten components advancing,” she added.
Overall, the LEI fell by 1.3% over the six-month period from July 2025 to January 2026, half the rate of decline compared to its -2.6% contraction over the previous six months (January to July 2025).
“As the latest LEI data do not yet reflect the impact from war in Iran, The Conference Board revised GDP growth down by 0.1 ppt to 2.0% y/y for 2026, which will be lower than growth in 2025,” Zabinska-La Monica noted.
In using the composite indexes, the Conference Board explains that Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy.
The CEI for the US rose by 0.3% in January 2026 to 115.3 (2016=100), after an increase of 0.2% in December. Overall, the CEI expanded by 0.3% over the six-month period from July 2025 to January 2026, after also expanding 0.3% over the previous six months. The CEI’s four component indicators — payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production — are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All components improved in January, with manufacturing and trade sales being estimated for the month.