US HRC Spot Pricing Range Rooted Firmly at $950-$970/ton
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Buy- and sell-side market participants tell WSD early this week that spot pricing for US-made hot-rolled coil (HRC) continues to slowly creep higher. A service center buyer in the South said he placed “a sizeable order” at $950 per ton for delivery in five weeks, while a mill sales rep reported a few “average size tonnage” orders at $960-$970 per ton.
“It’s an interesting dynamic,” a steel trader told WSD, “Domestic pricing is clearly robust, but demand is not. Yet, there is just enough demand — from those who traditionally place orders early in the year and those needing to rebuild inventory — to support the spot price creep that we are seeing.”
Nucor on Monday increased its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) offers for HRC just $5 to $965 per ton. That move pushed its CSP up $100 from a low of $865/ton on August 18, 2025.
“Viewed over that span of time, it’s an average increase of only $4.35 per ton, per week,” the trader observed, “And given all the data and talk of a lack of import competition, which diminished especially over the summer, that seems very moderate to me.”
Meanwhile, Monday’s HRC futures settlements on the CME were relatively buoyant through the May contract. February settled at $966, March was the highest at $981, April at $966 and May settled at $955 per ton. The April contract saw the most volume (388 lots).
WSD Take:
The US HRC price has continued to slowly rise as we enter the last week of January, and as such, WSD continues to stick to its guns regarding the near-term outlook for pricing.
The market continues to be driven by tight-supply conditions despite the absence of robust demand. Based on the latest import licensing data, December steel sheet import volumes were approximately 5.1 million tons on an annualized basis, down more than 50% versus December 2024 trade volumes.
In the immediate term, the outlook for demand remains murky, which may lead to a temporary pull-back in steel pricing in the coming weeks This is expected to be short-lived, however, as a combination of a typical upturn in seasonal steel demand in the spring combined with the prospect of more sustained steel demand growth in the second half could provide upward momentum for HRC prices into the summer. WSD does not expect much supply relief from imports through at least the first half of the year. As written about extensively, Canadian imports have been the hardest hit by tariffs, and we do not expect any possibility of historical normalization until USMCA re-negotiations occur this summer.
The combination of low imports, limited inventories, and improved demand conditions could result in HRC prices reaching $1,000 per ton by mid-year.
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