USA HRC Spot Price Around $840-$850/ton as Outages Push Out Lead Times
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Participants on both sides of the US spot market for hot-rolled coil (HRC) tell WSD early this week that the spot price for a typical-size order is edging north of $840 per ton, spurred by mill outages and a firmer stance by mills on their higher offers. Nucor maintained its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) at $875/ton on Monday.
“End-market demand is mixed—mostly steady, but nothing to get excited about,” said a Midwest service center buyer. Earning reports this week from Cleveland-Cliffs and SDI acknowledged a stronger demand pull from automotive in the third quarter, which is expected to continue.
Cliffs, in a slide presentation accompanying its earnings report, nonetheless labeled several end markets as experiencing “recession-like conditions.” These included some major steel demand sectors: construction, manufacturing, mining, agriculture and transportation & distribution. SDI, in its earnings, noted that energy, non-residential construction, automotive, and industrial sectors have driven its demand.
By and large, however, the uptick in HRC pricing from some sub-$800 per ton deals is clearly attributable to leaner supply. “Mills are now reluctant to provide big discounts,” a steel trader said. “Why would they, given the sharp drop-off in imports?” Lead times at several mills are reported into late December—as long as eight weeks, five weeks now on the shorter side.
WSD Take:
Recent earnings calls from Cleveland-Cliffs and Steel Dynamics appear to confirm much of what World Steel Dynamics (WSD) has been signaling over the past several weeks regarding the evolving direction of the U.S. steel market. Both producers reported stronger than expected shipping volumes heading into Q4, a trend underpinned by tightening supply as import inflows continue to slow.
In addition to the pullback in imports, domestic supply is being further constrained by planned maintenance outages. Collectively, these outages will remove over 700,000 tons of flat-rolled capacity from the market during October and November. While underlying demand has not shown a marked improvement, this tightening in supply has extended mill lead times in recent weeks, providing mills with a window of opportunity to lift spot pricing.
Based on WSD discussions with industry contacts, hot-rolled coil prices have continued to rise, reaching approximately $840-$850 per ton—a gain of roughly $40-$50 per ton versus September levels. However, WSD maintains a cautious stance on the sustainability of this momentum. The firm expects prices to rise only another $20–$30 per ton before encountering resistance.
End-user demand remains tentative, and market sentiment is clouded by uncertainty surrounding a potential venture agreement between the U.S. and Canadian governments. Should such an arrangement materialize, it could swiftly increase supply availability into the U.S. domestic market, putting swift downward pressure on prices.
Given these dynamics, WSD does not anticipate domestic flat-rolled prices rising much beyond $870–$875 per ton through the end of 2025. While supply-side constraints are currently offering short-term support, the absence of a meaningful demand rebound and the potential for policy-driven supply increases limit the upside potential from current levels.
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