USA HRC Spot Price Range Narrows to $1,240-$1,250/ton
Availability of US-made hot-rolled coil (HRC) remains scarce as spot market buyers scrambled in recent days to line up orders through the end of the year. Market participants on both the buy- and sell-sides now peg HRC spot prices at $1,240-$1,250 per ton as robust demand continues throughout much of the supply chain.
On Monday, Nucor stepped up its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for HRC by $10 to $1,220 per ton, with CSI’s Western US offers increasing to $1,280 per ton. “That $1,220, even $1,230, is pretty much gone already,” a Midwest service center buyer told WSD.
There has been “no change on spot availability and some mills have confirmed that they are done for the year,” wrote Worthington’s Jason Miller, VP – Purchasing/Cost Planning, in a recent LinkedIn post. “Buyer focus has moved to securing tonnage for next year, for some those early conversations are leading to uncertainty or disappointment,” he added.
Miller pointed out that the one lever mills have available to reduce the backlog is to take on less contractual business for 2027 and to move away from products and grades that are hard to make. “Next year is shaping up to be challenging for buyers, at least starting the year, but when could it change?” he asked, acknowledging that question is at the core of the supplier-buyer debate.
The forward curve for CME HRC futures continues to show strong positive market sentiment through at least February. Monday’s settlements for the November through February contracts were all above 1,300/ton.
WSD Take: Another week, another $5-10 per ton increase in domestic HRC prices.
For some time, HRC futures have indicated that the current 12-month rally had a few months of runway, and that prices would begin to retreat. For most of the summer, WSD has warned that high domestic prices were likely to invite increased imports in the fall. Early signals indicate that sheet imports could in fact reach the 8.0-8.5-million-ton range on an annualized basis. The question is whether that will be enough to halt further price increases this fall.
On its own, a resurgence of sheet imports should work to shorten lead times, bolster inventories, and loosen domestic mills’ strong pricing power, but the major wild card in the coming weeks will be whether a surge of imports leads to another ratcheting of tariffs.
In many ways, we saw this script play out once before in 2025. Following the announcement of 25% tariffs in February 2025, HRC prices rose by over $200 per ton in a matter of weeks. Exporters, particularly Canadian producers, continued selling through the tariff, and import volumes held steady, as neither buyers nor exporters anticipated that tariffs would double to 50% just months later.
Now, with import volumes likely up by as much as 3 million tons annualized from early-2026 lows, additional tariffs do not seem far-fetched despite no real indication from the Trump administration.
Absent additional tariffs, WSD expects that a combination of increased imports and additional supply in the form of capacity restarts and new capacity coming online will lead to a gradual normalization of pricing in early 2027. Should the Trump administration bite on the pleas from the AISI and SMA (see article below), all bets are off, barring a collapse in steel demand.